德国的“时代转折”及其对欧洲安全格局的影响  

Germany’s “Zeitenwende” and Its Implications for the European Security Landscape

作　　者：郑春荣 ZHENG Chunrong(School of Foreign Studies,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学外国语学院,上海200092

出　　处：《同济大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第2期35-46,共12页Journal of Tongji University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(20VGQ011)。

摘　　要：俄乌冲突爆发后,德国总理朔尔茨在联邦议院发表了引起广泛关注的“时代转折”演讲。“时代转折”最初是指德国所处的外部环境的恶化,但如今已被延展为德国安全与防务政策的“时代转折”。朔尔茨为“时代转折”确定了五项行动任务,并为此打破了德国安全与防务政策上的诸多“政治禁忌”,包括向危机地区输送武器、通过特别基金提高联邦国防军的能力与防务支出、决定在海外永久驻军等。基于德国目前已将俄罗斯视作欧洲—大西洋安全的最大威胁,德国也一改以往的安全“消费者”角色,主张担当欧洲安全保障者角色,意图将联邦国防军打造成欧洲常规防御的基石,并通过向立陶宛派出永久驻扎的作战旅,彰显其在欧洲安全中扮演领导角色的雄心。不过,为了切实承担欧洲安全保障者角色,德国仍然需要处理好德国防务支出、防务能力提高和战略文化调整的可持续性问题,解决好欧盟内东欧与西欧国家之间在安全保障倚重对象上的分歧,以及平衡好欧洲独立防务与北约安全保障之间的关系。After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, German Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz delivered a widely publicized “Zeitenwende” speech in the Bundestag. The “Zeitenwende” originally referred to the deterioration of Germany’s external environment, but has now been extended to a “Zeitenwende” in Germany’s security and defense policy. Scholz identified five action tasks for the “Zeitenwende”, and to do so broke many “political taboos” on Germany’s security and defense policy, including the delivery of weapons to crisis areas, enhancement of the Bundeswehr’s capacity and defense spending through a special fund, and the decision to permanently station troops abroad. Based on the fact that Germany now sees Russia as the greatest threat to Euro-Atlantic security, Germany has also changed its previous role as a security “consumer”, advocating the role of European security guarantor. Germany’s intention is to make the Bundeswehr the cornerstone of Europe’s conventional defense and, by sending a permanently stationed combat brigade to Lithuania, to demonstrate its ambition to play a leading role in European security. However, in order to effectively assume the role of European security guarantor, Germany still needs to deal with the sustainability of its defense spending and capabilities as well as its strategic cultural adjustments, resolve the differences between Eastern and Western European countries in the EU on whom to rely on for security, and balance the relationship between independent European defense and NATO’s security guarantees.

关 键 词：德国 “时代转折” 德国安全与防务政策 俄乌冲突 欧洲安全格局 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系]