地震活动性多参数方法研究华北地区强震危险性  

Study on the Risk of Strong Earthquakes in North China Based on Multiple Seismicity Parameter Method

作　　者：翟娟 洪德全[2] 朱亮[1] 赵梦强 杨震 ZHAI Juan;HONG Dequan;ZHU Liang;ZHAO Mengqiang;YANG Zhen(Huainan Earthquake Agency,Huainan 232001,China;Anhui Earthquake Agency,Hefei 230031,China)

机构地区：[1]淮南市地震局,安徽淮南232001 [2]安徽省地震局,合肥230031

出　　处：《华南地震》2024年第1期63-72,共10页South China Journal of Seismology

基　　金：安徽省重点研究与开发计划项目(科技惠民专项)(2022 m07020002);中国地震科技星火计划项目(XH20026)联合资助。

摘　　要：利用华北地区38年中小地震进行b值扫描,作为该区域背景应力水平,结果显示华北平原地震带和郯庐断裂带渤海区b值较低,应力积累水平较高。依据一定分区原则,将研究区划分为6个区域,采用多参数组合分析方法,并结合各分区历史强震活动水平,初步判断出各区的地震危险性,结果表明:山西带、燕山带、郯庐断裂带安徽区、山东区都处于较低或中等偏低的应力背景下,以中小地震滑动为特征,未来发生大震的可能性较小。郯庐断裂带渤海区正处于较高应力状态下,以平均震级较大的频繁中小地震滑动为特征,属于华北地区未来最有可能发生强震的区域。华北平原带正处于高应力背景下以稀疏的中小地震滑动为主要特征,未来存在发生大震的可能性。Based on the small and medium earthquakes in recent 38 years in North China,this paper carries out b-value scanning as the background stress level of the region.The results show that the b-value of the North China Plain seismic belt and the Bohai section of the Tanlu fault zone is low,and the stress accumulation level is high.According to certain zoning principles,the study area is divided into 6 regions.By using the multi-parameter combination analysis method and combining with the historical strong earthquake activity level of each region,the seismic risk of each region is preliminarily judged.The results show that the Shanxi belt,Yanshan belt,Anhui section and Shandong section of Tanlu fault zone are all under the low or medium-low stress background,characterized by the sliding of small and medium earthquakes,and the possibility of large earthquakes in the future is small.The Bohai section of the Tanlu fault zone,characterized by frequent sliding of small and medium earthquakes with large average magnitude,is in a high stress state and belongs to the region where strong earthquakes are most likely to occur in the future in North China.The North China Plain seismic belt is under the background of high stress,which is characterized by sliding of sparse small and medium earthquakes,and there is a possibility of large earthquakes in the future if the strain energy continues to accumulate.

关 键 词：多地震活动性参数 B值 华北地区 强震危险性 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]