成渝城市群PM_(2.5)影响因素的半变系数模型分析  

Analysis of Factors Affecting PM_(2.5) in the Urban Cluster around Chengdu and Chongqing:A Semi-Variable Coefficient Model

作　　者：陈伟 潘莹 Chen Wei;Pan Ying(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学数学与统计学院,重庆400067

出　　处：《无锡商业职业技术学院学报》2024年第2期23-30,共8页Journal of Wuxi Vocational Institute of Commerce

基　　金：重庆市基础研究与前沿探索一般项目“非平稳随机过程的空间分析及应用”(2018jcyjA2073);经济社会应用统计重庆市重点实验室重点项目“金融数据的统计学习方法与预测研究”(KFJJ2022056);重庆工商大学研究生创新型科研项目“含内生变量的高维部分线性模型特征筛选”(yjscxx2023-211-193)。

摘　　要：随着西南地区成为我国经济高质量发展新高地,成渝城市群的可持续发展受到各界关注。利用半变系数面板数据模型,以成渝城市群为研究对象,探讨PM_(2.5)与气温、降水量、气压、平均风速、相对湿度之间的动态关系。首先,通过散点图和拟合回归曲线分析不同气象因素与PM_(2.5)之间的线性关系、非线性关系,以及气象因素间的相互作用。其次,将半参数固定效应估计量、半参数随机效应估计量与测试程序相结合,区分固定效应和随机效应。研究发现:不可观测的个体效应为固定效应;气温对PM_(2.5)具有负向线性影响;气压、平均风速、降水量和相对湿度对PM_(2.5)具有复杂的非线性影响;气压分别与平均风速、降水量和相对湿度共同作用于PM_(2.5)。建议成渝城市群充分利用地理区位特征植树造林,调整能源结构,进行人工降雨,运用科技手段治理PM_(2.5),以此减少空气污染。As the southwest region has become a new momentum of China's rapid economic development,the sustainable development of the urban cluster around Chengdu and Chongqing has attracted attention from all walks of life.Using the semi-variable coefficient panel data model,this paper explores the dynamic relationship between PM_(2.5) and temperature,precipitation,air pressure,average wind speed,relative humidity in the urban cluster around Chengdu and Chongqing.Firstly,scatter plots and fitted regression curves are used to explore the linear and non-linear relationships of different meteorological factors on PM_(2.5),as well as the interactions between meteorological factors.Secondly,semi-parametric fixed effects estimators and semi-parametric random effects estimators are combined with the test procedure to distinguish between fixed effects(FE)and random effects(RE).The results show that unobservable individual effects are fixed effects;temperature has a negative linear effect on PM_(2.5);air pressure,average wind speed,precipitation,and relative humidity have complex nonlinear effects on PM_(2.5);and air pressure together with average wind speed,precipitation and relative humidity have a combined effect on PM_(2.5).It is suggested that the urban cluster around Chengdu and Chongqing should make full use of its geographical location,encourage residents to grow plants,adjust energy structure,create artificial rainfall,and use scientific and technological methods to reduce PM_(2.5) in order to reduce air pollution.

关 键 词：半变系数模型 成渝城市群 PM 2.5 大气环境 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]