论刑事个案犯罪信息研判中的消除归纳法  

Method of Induction by Elimination in Information Analysis of Criminal Cases

作　　者：马前进[1] Ma Qianjin(Jiangsu Police Institute,Nanjing 210031,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏警官学院基础课教研部,江苏南京210031

出　　处：《湖北警官学院学报》2024年第2期80-89,共10页Journal of Hubei University of Police

基　　金：江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学研究项目“警务非形式论证中的非形式谬误研究”(2022SJYB0479)。

摘　　要：为查明某一案件诸要素之间的因果关系,刑事个案犯罪信息研判人员有时需要借助消除归纳法,包括契合法、差异法和剩余法。消除归纳法与侦查实验等实证方法的关系更加密切,其推理思路是消除不相干因素,其结论比枚举归纳法的结论更加可靠。但是,即使正确运用消除归纳法,有时也会导致错误的甚至荒谬的结论;诸如契合法和差异法的“被研究现象的诸多实例只含有一种相同的事态”的要求实际上也是不可能的;契合法会导致小样本谬误或以偏概全谬误。正确运用消除归纳法,就必须遵守如下规则:增加被考察的实例,注意反例的存在;全面而深刻地分析事态和现象之间的变化关系并对消除归纳法进行细分;引入因果假说观念并检验因果假说。In order to ascertain the causal relationship between the main elements of a certain case,sometimes those who research and judge criminal single case information need take advantage of the induction by elimination,which includes the method of agreement,the method of difference and the method of residues.The induction by elimination is connected closely with the empirical methods such as investigation experiment,whose reasoning line is eliminating irrelevant factors and therefor its conclusion is more reliable than the induction by enumeration.However,even though the induction by elimination is properly applied,it still probably leads to false or even absurd conclusions;such requirement that many instances of the phenomenon under study contain only one identical state in the method of agreement and the method of difference is also impossible in fact;the method of agreement can bring about the fallacy of small sample or overgeneralization.Thus,to improve the reliability of conclusion of the induction by elimination,the people must comply with the following rules:adding explored instances and noticing the existence of counterexamples,analyzing comprehensively and profoundly the changing relationship between the state of the affairs and phenomena and subdividing the induction by elimination,introducing the idea of causal hypothesis and testing causal hypothesis.

关 键 词：刑事个案 犯罪信息研判 因果关系 消除归纳法 

分 类 号：D631[政治法律—政治学]