我国甲烷排放控制的中长期挑战与应对  

Medium-and Long-Term Challenges and Countermeasures for China’s CH4 Emission Control

作　　者：张博 郭金玲 高俊莲[2] 张国生[3] 刘合 Zhang Bo;Guo Jining;Gao Junian;Zhang Guosheng;Liu He(School of Management,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,Fujian,China;School of Management,China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development,Beijing 100083;National Key Laboratory for Green Mining of Multi-resource Collaborative Continental Shale Oil,Daqing 163712,Heilongjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学管理学院,福建厦门361005 [2]中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院,北京100083 [3]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [4]多资源协同陆相页岩油绿色开采全国重点实验室,黑龙江大庆163712

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2024年第2期185-197,共13页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：中国工程院咨询项目“中国中长期甲烷控排战略研究”(2023-XZ-44);“面向2040的我国能源系统转型重大风险防控战略研究”(2023-ZCQ-11);国家自然科学基金项目(72088101,72374175)。

摘　　要：甲烷(CH_(4))是全球第二大温室气体,控制CH_(4)排放兼具气候、环境、安全与经济效益;我国的CH_(4)排放量较大,开展中长期CH_(4)控排战略研究是强化我国温室气体减排能力体系建设的重要环节。本文从CH_(4)排放控制的科学基础出发,辨识了我国CH_(4)排放特征并剖析了CH_(4)排放控制面临的中长期挑战;从总体管控思路、各领域CH_(4)排放控制行动方向、减排技术与措施体系架构等方面阐明了我国中长期CH_(4)排放控制的行动逻辑,进而提出了我国中长期CH_(4)排放管控对策。研究认为,我国中长期CH_(4)控排行动将面临排放总量大且部门及区域间迥异、排放演变趋势及具体路径不确定、技术减排与措施减排的潜力不明晰、减排风险量化及目标设定能力不足等问题。建议着眼长远,从设定全口径目标、责任分配与落实、筑牢减排能力、增强管控合力出发,战略谋划CH_(4)排放控制工作,协同推进制度创新、科技创新、模式创新,加速实现我国从控制CH_(4)排放向减少CH_(4)排放的进程转变。Methane(CH_(4))is the second largest greenhouse gas in the world,and controlling CH_(4) emissions has climate,environment,safety,and economic benefits.China’s CH_(4) emissions are relatively large,and conducting medium-and long-term research on CH_(4) emission control strategies is crucial for the construction of a greenhouse gas emission reduction capacity system in China.Considering the scientific basis of CH_(4) emission control,this study analyzes the characteristics of CH_(4) emissions in China and explores the challenges faced by CH_(4) emission control.The logic of medium-and long-term CH_(4) emission control is clarified from three aspects:overall management and control idea,action directions of CH_(4) emission control in various fields,and system architecture of technologies and measures to reduce emissions.Corresponding countermeasures are then provided.The study concludes that China’s medium-and long-term actions regarding CH_(4) emission control will be constrained by the following problems:(1)large amount of CH_(4) emissions and differences among sectors and regions,(2)uncertain trends in emissions and specific paths,(3)unclear potentials of technologies and measures for emission reduction,and(4)insufficient capabilities to quantify risks and set targets for emission reduction.The CH_(4) emission control work of China should be strategically planned based on a long-term perspective,starting from setting overall emission control targets,assigning and implementing responsibilities,consolidating emission reduction capabilities,and enhancing the joint force of management and control.Additionally,institutional,technological,and model innovation should be promoted in a coordinated manner to accelerate the reduction in CH_(4) emissions.

关 键 词：CH_(4)排放控制 减排技术 减排措施 管控对策 温室气体减排 

分 类 号：F407.2[经济管理—产业经济] F416.2