基于PSO-ELM的地震死亡人员评估方法研究  

Method for estimating earthquake casualties based on PSO-ELM

作　　者：赵煜 韩旭昊 孙艳萍[3] 史一彤 陈文凯[3] ZHAO Yu;HAN Xuhao;SUN Yanping;SHI Yitong;CHEN Wenkai(School of Statistics,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,Gansu,China;Center for Quantitative Analysis of Gansu Economic Development,Lanzhou 730020,Gansu,China;Lanzhou Institute of Seismology,CEA,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学统计与数据科学学院,甘肃兰州730020 [2]甘肃经济发展数量分析研究中心,甘肃兰州730020 [3]中国地震局兰州地震研究所,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《地震工程学报》2024年第3期742-750,共9页China Earthquake Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金西部项目(21XTJ004);兰州财经大学重点项目(Lzufe2022B-005);“十三五”国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0504104)。

摘　　要：地震灾害人员伤亡快速评估对于地震应急响应至关重要。区域地理环境、人口密度和建筑结构等多种因素对地震人员伤亡具有重要影响,文章针对中国内地按照分区开展地震死亡人员评估方法研究。为充分考虑地震对不同地区造成的差异性影响,根据人口密度、地理环境、建筑结构等情况,将中国大陆划分为西北、西南和东部三个区域,并按地震最大烈度对样本进行分类;然后采用随机森林方法和自助采样法,根据每个特征的重要性排序选取震级、震区面积和人口密度三参数,建立粒子群优化极限学习机(PSO-ELM)地震人员死亡评估模型。研究结果表明,模型在预测性能方面表现良好,在不同地区和烈度下具有较好的适用性和泛化性,能够为地震应急响应和地震灾害风险评估提供重要技术支撑。Rapid casualty assessments during earthquake disasters are crucial for emergency response.Typically,various factors,such as regional geographic environments,population densities,and building structures,have pivotal impacts on earthquake casualties.We adopted a zonal approach to assess earthquake-related casualties in China' Mainland .Specifically,to comprehensively consider the differential impacts of earthquakes on diverse regions,the Chinese Mainland was divided into three zones—northwest,southwest,and east—based on population densities,geographical environments,and building structures.Additionally,the samples were further classified based on the maximum earthquake intensities recorded in these regions.Subsequently,employing the random forest method and bootstrap sampling technique,three parameters—earthquake magnitude,seismic area,and population density—were selected based on the importance of each feature.Thereafter,a particle swarm optimization-extreme learning machine(PSO-ELM)model was established for earthquake casualty assessments.Results indicated that the proposed model demonstrated excellent predictive performance,with good applicability and generalization across diverse regions and intensities,thereby offering valuable technical support for earthquake emergency response efforts and seismic risk assessments.

关 键 词：地震人员伤亡 评估模型 PSO-ELM 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]