风险量化模拟在国际工程商务谈判中的探索  

Exploring the risk quantification simulation in internationalproject business negotiations

作　　者：董超 吴鲲 丛然 王军平 DONG Chao;WU Kun;CONG Ran;WANG Junping(CPECC,Beijing,100120,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油工程建设有限公司,北京100120

出　　处：《天然气与石油》2024年第2期131-136,共6页Natural Gas and Oil

摘　　要：为了探讨在与业主商务谈判中如何通过风险量化模拟来应对业主的降价要求,从而为投标决策提供支持,以中东某LNG施工投标项目为例,使用@RISK风险量化软件的模拟功能,分析了项目的风险项,以及不同的合同偏离对减少风险费用的具体影响,为商务谈判提供客观的数据支持。风险量化模拟不仅适用于特定案例,也可在其他商务谈判中推广应用,为各类投标决策提供新的思路和工具支持。未来研究可进一步探索不同行业、不同类型项目的商务谈判案例,并结合更多的风险量化工具,为商务谈判决策提供更多元化的支持。This article is to explore ways of responding to price reduction requests from clients through risk quantification simulation in business negotiations,thus providing support for decision making during bidding.Taking an LNG construction bidding project in the Middle East as a case study,using the simulation function of@RISK risk quantification software,the risk items of the project are analyzed first,and then the specific impact of different contract deviations on reducing risk costs is analyzed,providing objective support data for business negotiations.This method is not limited to specific cases but can be extended to other business negotiations,offering new perspectives and tool support for various decision making during bidding.Future research could further explore business negotiation cases in different industries and project types,integrating a variety of risk quantification tools to provide diversified support for business negotiation decision making.

关 键 词：风险量化 商务谈判 合同偏离 投标决策 

分 类 号：F284[经济管理—国民经济] F416.22F426.9F125