城乡分割视角下中国收入不均等与消费关系研究  

Relationship between Income Inequality and Domestic Consumption in China:A Perspective of Urban-Rural Segmentation

作　　者：万广华 罗知[3] 张勋[4] 汪晨 Wan Guanghua;Luo Zhi;Zhang Xun;Wang Chen

机构地区：[1]复旦大学世界经济研究所 [2]复旦大学一带一路及全球治理研究院,200433 [3]武汉大学经济发展研究中心,430072 [4]北京师范大学统计学院金融统计系,100875 [5]上海财经大学财经研究所,200433

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（贸易经济）》2023年第1期60-77,共18页Trade and Economy

摘　　要：中国省级收入不均等与人均消费正相关,且该正相关关系相当稳健,这违背了边际消费倾向递减的经济学基本原理,意味着大量的财政转移和其他在降低收入不均等的政策可能失效,并带来内需的减少而非增加,甚至危及“双循环”和中国经济的持续发展。本文旨在分析城乡分割对收入不均等-消费之间关系的影响。首先,展示了收入不均等-消费正相关之谜,接着通过构建理论模型和实证分析揭开谜底,最后提出政策建议。具体来说,本文的创新点包括:(1)在不区分城乡的情况下,本文发现中国省级收入不均等与消费正相关,且该关系相当稳健。这是本文定义的收入不均等-消费正相关之谜。(2)构建理论模型,揭示了城乡分割如何影响收入不均等与消费之间的关系。(3)进行一系列实证分析,从不同的视角证明,是城乡分割导致了收入不均等与人均消费正相关。本文的政策含义是:中国需要加快推进城镇化和市民化进程,在城乡充分融合的前提下缩小贫富差距,才能提振内需,对冲全球化逆流和百年一遇的国际局势动荡的影响,进而畅通双循环,促进中国经济的持续发展。Similar to other economies in East Asia,miracle growth in China has been accompanied with fast ris-es in international trade,particularly exports.In addition,the domestic savings rate in China has been higher than those in East Asia which,in turn,have been higher than the global average.These imply that domestic consumption in China is very low and China's economic circulation heavily relies on the international market.As deglobalization gains momentum and geopolitical conflicts intensify,the growth model relying on international economy becomes in-creasingly unsustainable for China.This partly explains why the Chinese government launched the strategy of double-thrust development dynamic in 2020,which appeals for more reliance on the domestic rather than foreign markets for absorbing final products and services.In essence,the new development strategy of China requires raising the domestic savings rate.This represents a formidable challenge due to the stickiness in consumption habit and equally or more importantly due to the prevalence of diminishing marginal propensity to consume(MPC).Therefore,income growth is expected to reduce,not increase the consumption rate,holding other things constant.In such cases,however,it is possible to increase per capita con-sumption and thus consumption rate by transferring income from the relatively rich to the relatively poor who have higher MPCs.In other words,income inequality and the average consumption level are negatively correlated.China can promote domestic consumption by improving income distribution.Unfortunately,the baseline model and instrumental variable(IV)estimations using provincial panel data from Chi-na show that income inequality and consumption are positively,not negatively correlated.Inspired by Blinder(1975),in this paper we attempt to analyze whether and to what extent urban-rural segmentation caused by the household registration system(hukou)leads to the positive correlation between income inequality and consumption.The hukou system,more or less unique to C

关 键 词：收入不均等 消费 城镇化 市民化 城乡分割 双循环 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济] F126.1