北方寒冷地区交通碳排放驱动因素分析  

Driving Factor Analysis of Traffic Carbon Emissions in Cold Regions of North China

作　　者：石振武[1] 李琳[1] 王金茹 SHI Zhenwu;LI Lin;WANG Jinru(School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,Heilongjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学土木与交通学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2024年第5期219-226,共8页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(YQ2020G001);龙建路桥股份有限公司企业项目(HFW230500018)。

摘　　要：北方地区气候寒冷,交通工具燃油效率低、车内加热需求增加及路面积雪结冰等复杂道路条件导致交通碳排放增加。因此,有必要针对寒冷地区的交通碳排放驱动因素进行分析,识别关键因素,并有针对性地降低碳排放。以典型北方寒冷地区黑龙江省为例,采用Tapio脱钩测度模型及GDIM因素分解法对2006—2021年黑龙江省交通行业碳排放驱动因素展开分析,分解得到8个驱动因素并发现其脱钩状态呈现“强脱钩-扩张负脱钩-强脱钩”,其中交通产值碳强度和单位交通行业产值的能耗促进脱钩,交通行业总产值和总周转量阻碍脱钩;另外交通行业总产值、能源消耗量对碳排放有较强的促进作用,交通产值碳强度和单位交通行业产值的能耗对碳排放有较强的抑制作用。In the northern region of China,the low fuel efficiency of vehicles,increased heating demand in vehicles,and complex road conditions such as snow and ice on the road surface caused by the cold climate lead to an increase in traffic carbon emissions.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze the driving factors of transportation carbon emissions in cold regions,identify key factors,and reduce carbon emissions in a targeted manner.Taking the typical northern cold region of Heilongjiang as an example,this paper adopted the Tapio decoupling measurement model and the GDIM method to analyze the driving factors of carbon emissions in the transportation industry of Heilongjiang from 2006 to 2021.Then,eight driving factors were decomposed and found to be in a state of“strong decoupling-expansion negative decoupling-strong decoupling”.Specifically,the carbon intensity of transportation output and the energy consumption per unit of transportation industry output promote decoupling,and the total output of the transportation industry and the total turnover hinder decoupling.Additionally,the total output of the transportation industry and the energy consumption exert a strong effect on promoting carbon emissions,while the carbon intensity of transportation output and the energy consumption per unit of transportation industry output have a powerful effect on inhibiting carbon emissions.

关 键 词：寒冷地区 交通碳排放 Tapio脱钩模型 广义迪氏指数分解法 驱动因素分析 

分 类 号：U12[交通运输工程] U2