房地产税的宏观经济效应与分配效应研究  

Research on the Macroeconomic Effects and Distributional Effects of Real Estate Tax Reform

作　　者：杨耀武 刘元生[2] Yang Yaowu;Liu Yuansheng

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所,北京100836 [2]西南财经大学财政税务学院,成都611130

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（财政与税务）》2023年第9期73-91,共19页

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BTJ059);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(18YJC790108)的资助。

摘　　要：本文在一个引入房地产和居民抵押贷款约束的异质性个体世代交替模型中,加入消费税、资本所得税和劳动所得税以匹配中国的现实税制结构,并依据中国数据对模型参数进行了校准。在此基础上引入房地产税,研究房地产税的税率和免征额调整以及从消费税向房地产税的税制结构转换对宏观经济、收入和财富分配的影响。本文的主要研究结论如下:第一,普遍征收房地产税对消费同时存在收入效应和替代效应,最终影响要看两种效应的相对强弱;总产出则随着房地产税率的提高呈倒U型变化,而房地产和总财富分配差距则随着房地产税率的提高而扩大。第二,合理的免征额设置是实现房地产税改善收入和财富分配功能的关键。第三,在合理设置免征额基础上,实行税制结构转换可以更好地发挥房地产税改善收入分配的作用,同时也可以进一步促进消费。本文实现了在统一的理论框架内,同时研究房地产税的宏观经济与分配效应,有效解决了基于微观调查数据的静态模拟所存在的动态不一致问题,为房地产税改革可能产生的影响和税制设计提供了政策参考。In recent years,the reform of the real estate tax has attracted a high degree of attention from all sectors of Chinese society.This is not only because the reform of the real estate tax will affect real estate investment and residents'consumption and savings behavior,and thus affect social resource allocation and total output,but also because the real estate tax will also affect income and wealth distribution.The degree of inequality in the distribution of real estate wealth in Chinese households has reached a high level and has a tendency to further increase.The degree of inequality in real estate wealth distribution largely determines the degree of inequality in total wealth distribution among Chinese households.The exacerbation of wealth inequality can increase social rigidity and may lead to a vicious cycle between income and wealth distribution.Currently,China's tax system is still dominated by indirect taxes,which are generally regressive and cannot effectively suppress the mutual reinforcement of income and wealth inequality.As a direct tax,the real estate tax has been given great hope for improving wealth and income distribution.However,real estate investment still has a significant driving effect on China's related industries,in order to ensure the healthy and stable development of the national economy,the real estate tax reform should not have a significant impact on total output and the real estate industry.At the same time,real estate taxes may have a regressive characteristic.Therefore,it is necessary to make a profound study of the macroeconomic and distribution effects that may arise from different real estate tax system designs.Based on the model of Iacoviello&Pavan(2013),this article adds consumption taxes,capital gains taxes,labor income taxes to match China's current tax system.Using China's macroeconomic demand structure,tax structure,income and wealth distribution data,the model parameters are calibrated.Then the article introduces real estate tax.The possible innovations of this article main

关 键 词：房地产税 异质性世代交叠模型 宏观经济效应 收入和财富分配 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F299.23