多重不确定性下的风险权衡与对冲——2022年“地方财政经济运行”调研总报告  

Risk Trade-off and Hedging under Multiple Uncertainties--Report of Local Finance and Economic Operation in 2022

作　　者：中国财政科学研究院2022年“地方财政经济运行”课题组 刘尚希 邢丽 Research Team of CAFS for Local Finance and Economic Operation in 2022

机构地区：[1]不详

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（财政与税务）》2023年第9期92-104,共13页

摘　　要：2022年经济遭受超预期冲击,为对冲经济社会风险,财政支出强度前所未有。财政运行特点体现为:一般公共预算收入前低后高,非税收入、资源型地区收入高企;支出刚性进一步强化,央地支出占比差距加大;政府性基金预算收入负增长,专项债加力保支出强度;地方政府债券付息压力大,基层财政部门用足再融资还本政策空间。为对冲经济社会领域的公共风险,财政的公共支出责任不断增加,出现公共风险“财政化”、财政风险“地方化”、短期风险“长期化”等倾向。从风险演变的视角来看,短期内形势企稳,长期内社会领域公共风险不断扩散,财政支出责任将不断扩大。为此,建议优化调控方式,强化中央在对冲宏观经济社会风险中的主导地位;加快经济复苏,用经济发展缓释财政风险;推进财政改革,用治理效能提升财政对冲风险能力;加速社会改革,防范并应对社会风险向财政责任的无序转化。In 2022,the economy suffered unexpected shocks,and to hedge against economic and social risks,the intensity of fiscal expenditure was unprecedented.The characteristics of local finance and economic operation are as follows:the revenue of the general public budget was low at first and high at last,and non-tax revenue and the revenue of resource-based areas were high;Expenditure rigid was further strengthened,and the gap between central and local expenditure was increased;The revenue of the fund budget has increased negatively,and the government bonds have been strengthened to maintain the expenditure intensity;The pressure for paying for local government bond interest was great,and local financial departments have utilized the measure of refinancing to repay the principal to a great extent.In order to hedge against public risks in the economic and social fields,the public expenditure responsibility of the government has been increasing,with the tendency towards“financialization”of public risks,“localization”of fiscal risks,and“long-term change”of short-term risks.From the perspective of risk evolution,the situation will stabilize in the short term,public risks in the social sphere will continue to extend in the long term,and the expenditure responsibility will continue to expand.Therefore,it is suggested to optimize the control mode and strengthen the leading role of the central government in hedging against macroeconomic and social risks;to accelerate economic recovery and mitigate financial risks with economic development;to promote fiscal reform and improve fiscal hedging ability with governance;to accelerate social reform,prevent and respond to the transformation of social risks into financial responsibilities.

关 键 词：风险-成本 公共风险 不确定性 风险收敛 风险对冲 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]