轻税能否多收——来自民国战时消费税的证据(1942—1945)  

Does Lower Taxation Rate Lead to More Tax Revenue?:Evidence from Wartime Excise Taxation in the Republic of China(1942-1945)

作　　者：徐之茵 管汉晖[1] 毛捷[2] 陈玥卓 Xu Zhiyin;Guan Hanhui;Mao Ji;Chen Yuezhuo

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（财政与税务）》2023年第12期100-113,共14页

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(13BJL016、16ZDA131)的资助;国家自然科学基金面上项目(71573038)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于1942—1945年消费税月度数据,检验低税率会通过扩大税基以增加税收,即“轻税多收”假说。本文发现“轻税多收”取决于需求价格弹性,高弹性商品税率每降低1%,税收缩减幅度更小,甚至反向变化。本文为战时消费税难以维持提供了更丰富的解释:消费税目的是增加税收为战争提供财政支持,当政府只考虑税收最大化时,税负主要承担者必然是低弹性商品消费者,这会加剧社会不稳定。本文为发挥消费税在未来税制改革中的作用提供了历史借鉴。We collect data of excise taxation in the Republic of China(1942-1945)and test the hypothesis of“Lower Taxation Rate Lead to More Tax Revenue”.We find the hypothesis is based on the price elasticity theory.When tax rate reduced by 1%,tax revenue from the commodities with higher elasticity increases less than those with lower elasticity.Our study explains why wartime excise taxation had to be ended.If government aimed to maximize tax revenue,most of which would come from daily necessities,this would lead to more social instability.The paper can provide some suggestions for contemporary Excise Taxation reform.

关 键 词：消费税 轻税多收 价格弹性 

分 类 号：K265[历史地理—历史学] F812.9[历史地理—中国史]