跨领域跨时间的技术需求热点分布及其趋势预测  

Distribution of Technology Demand Hotspots and Their Trend Forecasting Across Domains and Time

作　　者：余辉 魏梓萌 夏文蕾 黄炜 陈晓芳[4] 

机构地区：[1]湖北工业大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430068 [2]湖北工业数字经济发展研究中心,湖北武汉430068 [3]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072 [4]武汉理工大学数字治理与管理决策创新研究院,湖北武汉430070 [5]武汉晴川学院商学院,湖北武汉430204

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2024年第5期139-147,共9页Information Studies:Theory & Application

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目“长江中游城市群综合科技服务平台研发与应用示范”(项目编号:2018YFB1404300);省教育厅哲学社会科学研究项目“多维数据融合下面向技术需求的技术成果智能匹配机制”(项目编号:22Q046);湖北工业大学高层次人才科研启动基金“复杂环境下技术需求分析方法与供需匹配模式研究”(项目编号:XJ2022004501)的成果。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]技术需求热点预测是技术创新过程中起引领作用的关键因素,准确识别对预见技术创新的实际应用市场价值、降低创新风险以及产业现代化升级至关重要。[方法/过程]通过使用Word2Vec模型和TF-IDF提取关键词,结合LDA建模和主题聚类进行跨领域综合分析,生成技术热点主题,并通过词云图展示现有技术热点分布趋势。此外,通过选取高频词和低频词,并结合时间序列及回归分析,跨时间识别技术需求聚焦领域,并计算不同技术的相对增长率,以获取技术的发展潜力。[结果/结论]中部地区的技术需求热点主题主要集中在“智能系统与设备升级”“环保与资源化利用”和“生产流程与质量管理”等领域;在高性能、智能化的工艺技术及装备等方面存在技术需求缺口,并且产品检测、富硒化合物以及智能化的合成研制生产工艺具有较高的发展潜力。[Purpose/significance]Accurately identifying the practical market value of anticipated technological innovations,reducing the risks of innovation,and upgrading industrial modernization are all essential.[Method/process]By utilizing the Word2Vec model and TF-IDF to extract keywords,combined with LDA modeling and topic clustering for interdisciplinary analysis,we generate technological hot topics.We showcase the distribution trends of existing technological hotspots through word cloud visu-alization.Additionally,by selecting high-frequency and low-frequency words,and combining time series and regression analysis,we detect technology demand focal areas over time and calculate the relative growth rate of different technologies to gauge their de-velopment potential.[Result/conclusion]The hot topics of technological demand in the Central Region mainly revolve around areas such as“intelligent systems and equipment upgrades”“environmental protection and resource utilization”and“production proces-ses and quality management”.There is a technological demand gap in high-performance,intelligent process technologies,and e-quipment,and there are significant growth potentials for product testing,selenium-rich compounds,and intelligent synthesis re-search and production processes.This study combines closely related technological connections among different domains to eliminate technological barriers between fields.It considers the perception of future technological demand trends based on time and popularity.It comprehensively considers the distribution and trends of technological demand hotspots in both domain and time dimensions.

关 键 词：技术需求 热点分布 需求感知 趋势预测 科技情报 

分 类 号：G353.1[文化科学—情报学]