AMDAR资料质量控制及同化对2020年春季数值预报的影响研究  

The impact of AMDAR data quality control and assimilation on spring numerical forecast in 2020

作　　者：周炳君 徐迪峰 张程明 黄小燕[2] 吴俊杰 ZHOU Bingjun;XU Difeng;ZHANG Chengming;HUANG Xiaoyan;WU Junjie(Ningbo Meteorological Observatory of Zhejiang Province,Ningbo 315012,Zhejiang,China;Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration,Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省宁波市气象台,浙江宁波315012 [2]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《干旱气象》2024年第2期283-292,共10页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：浙江省青年科技项目(2021QN24);上海气象局台风基金项目(TFJJ202010);宁波市重点研发计划暨“揭榜挂帅”项目(2023Z139);宁波市科技计划项目(2021S190)共同资助。

摘　　要：航空气象数据转发(Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay,AMDAR)资料具有采样频度高、探测层次密集等特点,能够有效补充高空资料时空分辨率的不足。利用2020年3月1日至5月31日(春季)国家气象信息中心提供的中国区域AMDAR资料和美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP)提供的全球预报模式(Global Forecast System,GFS)资料,对不同高度的AMDAR观测资料进行质量分析和控制,通过两周循环同化对比试验检验同化质量控制后的AMDAR资料对分析场和预报场的影响。结果表明:AMDAR资料风速与GFS资料的均方根误差(Root Mean Square Error,RMSE)呈明显的随高度增加而增大趋势,风速、温度的偏差(Bias)也存在随高度增加而增大趋势。对不同高度的AMDAR资料进行质量控制后,AMDAR与GFS资料的RMSE和Bias都有所改进,且AMDAR资料和GFS资料的差值(Observation Minus Background,OMB)更加符合高斯分布。同化质量控制后的AMDAR资料对风、温度和位势高度分析场有一定的改进作用,并且改进可以影响到12 h甚至24 h预报场。同化质量控制后的AMDAR资料能一定程度上提高降水预报技巧,其中中等量级降水预报改进效果明显。The Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay(AMDAR)data has the characteristics of high sampling frequency and dense detec⁃tion levels,which can effectively supplement the lack of spatial and temporal resolution of high-altitude data.In this paper,the quality analysis and control of AMDAR observation data at different heights were carried out by using the China regional AMDAR data pro⁃vided by the National Meteorological Information Center and the Global Forecast System(GFS)data provided by National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)from March 1 to May 31,2020(spring).The influence of the assimilation of AMDAR data after qual⁃ity control on the analysis field and the forecast field was tested by a two-week cycle assimilation comparison test.The results show that the root mean square error(RMSE)between AMDAR wind speed and GFS data shows an obvious increasing trend with the increase of height,and the bias of wind speed and temperature also shows an increasing trend with the increase of height.After quality control of AMDAR data at different heights,the RMSE and bias between AMDAR data and GFS data have been improved,and the observation minus background(OMB)between AMDAR data and GFS data was more consistent with Gaussian distribution.The assimilation of AMDAR data after quality control has a certain improvement on the analysis field of wind,temperature and geopotential height,and the improvement could affect the 12-hour or even 24-hour forecast field.The assimilation of AMDAR data after quality control could im⁃prove the precipitation forecasting skills,especially for medium precipitation forecast.

关 键 词：AMDAR资料 质量控制 资料同化 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]