基于跨期决策理论的自然灾害韧性治理预防投资实现机制研究  

Research on the Implementation Mechanism of Prevention Investment in Natural Disaster Resilience Governance Based on Intertemporal Decision Theory

作　　者：高贵现[1] 郭玲霞[2] Gao Guixian;Guo Lingxia(School of Business,Luoyang Normal University,Luoyang 471934,China;School of Geography and Tourism,Luoyang Normal University,Luoyang 471934,China)

机构地区：[1]洛阳师范学院商学院,河南洛阳471934 [2]洛阳师范学院地理与旅游学院,河南洛阳471934

出　　处：《洛阳师范学院学报》2024年第3期63-68,共6页Journal of Luoyang Normal University

基　　金：河南省科技厅软科学研究计划项目(222400410351);河南省科技厅软科学研究计划项目(222400410315)。

摘　　要：基于跨期决策理论,构建了自然灾害韧性治理实现机制的分析框架,重点分析了自然灾害韧性治理难以实现其预期效果的原因。研究发现:自然灾害韧性治理难以实现的根源在于灾前预防投资严重不足,这主要来源于决策者的短视以及侥幸心理、灾前预防投资与灾后收益间的关系没有厘清以及受灾地区人们的生活水平还不够高等原因。因此需要通过制度机制和理念文化的建立对治理主体形成切实的约束,需要提高灾前预防投资必要性和科学的认识并不断提高人们的生活水平。研究顺应了我国自然灾害治理从以灾后救助为主向以灾前预防为主转变的需求,为我国更好地进行灾前预防并实现自然灾害韧性治理提供理论依据。Based on the intertemporal decision theory,this research constructs an analytical framework for the implementation mechanism of natural disaster resilience governance,focusing on the reasons for difficulties in achieving the expected effects of natural disaster resilience governance.The results show that the root cause for the difficulty in achieving the resilience governance of natural disasters lies in the serious shortage of pre-disaster prevention investment,which mainly comes from the short-sightedness and fluke mentality of decision-makers,the lack of reasonable understanding in the relationship between pre-disaster prevention investment and post-disaster revenue,and the insufficient living standards of people in the affected areas.Therefore,it is necessary to construct effective constraints on the governance subjects through the establishment of institutional mechanisms and conceptual culture,it is necessary to improve the necessity and scientific understanding of pre-disaster prevention investment,and it is necessary to constantly improve people’s living standards.This research conforms to the demand of natural disaster management from post-disaster relief to pre-disaster prevention in China,and provides a theoretical basis to carry out pre-disaster prevention and achieve resilience management of natural disasters.

关 键 词：跨期决策 自然灾害 韧性治理 

分 类 号：D63[政治法律—政治学] C939[政治法律—中外政治制度]