维持性血液透析尿毒症患者动静脉内瘘急性血栓形成的危险因素分析及Nomogram预测模型构建  

Analysis of risk factors for acute thrombosis of arteriovenous fistulae in patients undergoing maintenance hemodialysis and the construction of a Nomogram prediction model

作　　者：郭永新[1] 冯培云 申文玲 孙昆[1] 周一龙[1] GUO Yongxin;FENG Peiyun;SHEN Wenling;SUN Kun;ZHOU Yilong(Blood Purification Center,the Third Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University,Xinxiang 453003,Henan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]新乡医学院第三附属医院血液净化中心,河南新乡453003

出　　处：《新乡医学院学报》2024年第5期472-476,共5页Journal of Xinxiang Medical University

摘　　要：目的探讨维持性血液透析(MHD)尿毒症患者动静脉内瘘急性血栓形成的危险因素及Nomogram预测模型构建。方法选择2020年12月至2022年12月于新乡医学院第三附属医院门诊行MHD治疗的418例尿毒症患者为研究对象。根据动静脉内瘘是否形成急性血栓将患者分为急性血栓组(n=32)与非急性血栓组(n=386)。应用单因素及多因素logistic回归分析影响行MHD的尿毒症患者动静脉内瘘急性血栓形成的影响因素;根据尿毒症患者动静脉内瘘急性血栓形成的独立危险因素建立Nomogram预测模型,并应用Bootstrap来验证Nomogram模型的有效性。结果急性血栓组患者合并糖尿病患、合并低血压、透析时穿刺失败占比、钙磷乘积、超敏C反应蛋白(hs-CRP)、总胆固醇(TC)、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)水平均显著高于非急性血栓组(P<0.05);logistic回归分析显示,糖尿病、低血压、透析时穿刺失败、钙磷乘积升高、高水平hs-CRP、高水平LDL-C是影响行MHD的尿毒症患者动静脉内瘘急性血栓形成的独立危险因素(P<0.05);依据6个独立危险因素构建了Nomogram预测模型,该模型的一致性指数为0.893(95%置信区间:0.833~0.928);且其校正曲线和标准曲线拟合较好,曲线下面积为0.918。结论糖尿病、低血压、透析时穿刺失败、钙磷乘积升高、高水平hs-CRP和LDL-C是行MHD的尿毒症患者动静脉内瘘急性血栓形成的危险因素,依据独立危险因素构建的Nomogram模型预测行MHD的尿毒症患者动静脉内瘘急性血栓形成的效果较好,有助于临床急性血栓形成患者的早期筛查。Objective To explore the risk factors for acute thrombosis of arteriovenous fistulae(AF)in maintenance hemodialysis(MHD)patients and the construction of a Nomogram prediction model.Methods A total of 418 patients who underwent MHD treatment in the outpatient clinic of the Third Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University from December 2020 to December 2022 were selected for the study.The patients were divided into the acute thrombosis group(n=32)and non-acute thrombosis group(n=386)according to whether acute thrombosis of AF was formed or not.The influencing factors affecting acute thrombosis of AF in MHD patients were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analysis.A Nomogram prediction model was established based on their independent risk factors,and Bootstrap was used to validate the efficacy of the Nomogram model.Results The complicated diabetes,complicated hypotension,puncture failure on dialysis,calcium-phosphorus product,hypersensitive C-reactive protein(hs-CRP),total cholesterol(TC),and low density lipoprotein-cholesterol(LDL-C)levels in patients in the acute thrombosis group were significantly higher than those in the non-acute thrombosis group(P<0.05);logistic regression analysis showed that diabetes,hypotension,puncture failure on dialysis,calcium-phosphorus product elevation,high hs-CRP and high LDL-C level were the independent risk factors affecting acute thrombosis of AF in patients undergoing MHD(P<0.05);the Nomogram model was constructed based on the 6 independent risk factors,and the consistency index(C-index)of the model was 0.893(95%confidence interval:0.833-0.928);in addition,its calibration curve and the standard curve were well fitted,the area under the curve was 0.918.Conclusion Diabetes,hypotension,puncture failure during dialysis,calcium-phosphorus product elevation,and high levels of hs-CRP and LDL-C are the risk factors for acute thrombosis of AF in patients undergoing MHD,and the Nomogram model constructed based on the independent risk factors has excellent predictive abilit

关 键 词：维持性血液透析 动静脉内瘘 急性血栓 Nomogram预测模型 

分 类 号：R459.5[医药卫生—治疗学]