东盟2023年回顾与2024年展望  

A Retrospect of 2023 and Looking Ahead to 2024 in ASEAN

作　　者：廖宏瑞 罗圣荣[2,3] Liao Hongrui;Luo Shengrong(Yunnan University,Kunming,650000,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学外国语学院,云南昆明650000 [2]云南大学国际关系研究院,云南昆明650000 [3]云南大学区域国别研究院,云南昆明650000

出　　处：《东南亚纵横》2024年第3期44-54,共11页Crossroads：Southeast Asian Studies

摘　　要：作为2023年的东盟轮值主席国,印度尼西亚以“东盟举足轻重:增长中心”为东盟峰会主题,从政治安全、经济发展和社会人文三大支柱全面加强东盟共同体建设。年内,东盟政治安全共同体建设朝着预期方向稳步推进,延续“大国平衡”外交政策以维护东盟的中心地位与地区和平稳定。其中,柬埔寨和泰国两国成功实现权力的平稳交接,但缅甸和平进程依旧任重而道远。东盟经济共同体建设卓有成效,各国通过加快数字经济发展、加强地区合作等举措推进数字经济发展转型,但各国经济复苏普遍低于预期。东盟社会文化共同体建设上并未取得突出成就,跨境烟霾问题依旧突出,网络安全等问题热度上升。此外,东盟继续通过“平衡”和“借势”,成功斡旋于中美两个大国之间,与中国的政治互信和经贸人文往来进一步提升,与美国积极推进“印太经济框架”及开展联合演习,与日韩在安全防务合作领域成绩突出,与欧盟聚焦经贸领域合作,积极扩展与阿拉伯国家和非洲国家之间的伙伴关系,有力维护了东盟中心地位。2024年,东盟轮值主席国接棒者老挝以“东盟:增强互联互通与韧性”为主题,期望老挝在解决缅甸和平进程、合作制度化程度低等问题上取得重大突破有一定难度,但老挝在促进互联互通、推动南海局势降温及维护东盟中心地位上仍会有较大作为空间。Under the theme of"ASEAN Matters:Epicentrum of Growth",Indonesia,the 2023 ASEAN rotating chair,spearheaded a comprehensive revitalization of the ASEAN Community across the three pillars of Political-Security Community(APSC),Economic Community(AEC)and Socio-Cultural Community(ASCC).Last year,the building of APSC made steady progress in the"expected direction"and continued to maintain ASEAN Centrality and regional peace and stability through the policy of"great power balance".Cambodia and Thailand have successfully achieved a smooth transfer of power,but the peace process in Myanmar still has a long way to go.The construction of AEC has been fruitful.ASEAN countries have promoted the development and transformation of the digital economy through measures such as accelerating the digital economy and strengthening regional cooperation,but their economic recovery generally fell short of expectations.There have been no outstanding achievements in the construction of ASCC,cross-border smog that has plagued the country is still prominent,and issues such as cyber security are on the rise.In addition,ASEAN's continual successful mediation between China and the United States through"balance"and"leverage"has enhanced mutual political trust,economic and cultural exchanges with China and actively promoted the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and joint exercises with the United States.ASEAN has also made outstanding achievements in security and defense cooperation with Japan and the ROK,focused on economic and trade cooperation with the EU,and actively expanded partnerships with Arab and African countries,effectively safeguarding ASEAN's Centrality.Laos,the 2024 ASEAN chair,adopted the theme of"ASEAN:Enhancing Connectivity and Resilience"for the year.Even though it isdifficult to expect Laos to make breakthroughs in resolving the peace process in Myanmar and the low institutionalization of cooperation,there is more room to promote connectivity,cool down the dispute in the South China Sea,and maintain ASEAN Centrality.

关 键 词：东盟共同体 东盟政治安全 东盟经济 东盟社会文化 东盟外交 

分 类 号：D814.1[政治法律—国际关系]