2023—2024年东盟国家经济分析与预测  

An Analysis and Forecast of ASEAN Countries'Economy(2023-2024)

作　　者：王勤[1,2] Wang Qin(Xiamen University,Xiamen,361005,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学国际关系学院/南洋研究院,福建厦门361005 [2]南开大学APEC研究中心

出　　处：《东南亚纵横》2024年第3期55-61,共7页Crossroads：Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点基地重大项目“‘印太经济框架’的发展态势、影响及我国的应对策略研究”(22JJD790043);中央高校基本科研业务费项目“东南亚地区发展报告(2023-2024年)”。

摘　　要：2023年,东盟国家经济增长未能延续上年经济强劲复苏的势头,各国经济增速总体低于2022年,也低于各国政府年初的预期目标。从需求结构来看,东盟国家的私人消费和政府消费逐渐上升,固定资本形成有所扩大,但进出口贸易普遍下滑。从供给结构来看,东盟各国三次产业整体保持复苏景象,但部分国家制造业出现萎缩现象。从主要国家经济增长来看,菲律宾经济增速最快,随后为越南、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、泰国和新加坡。不过,在全球经济动荡的背景下,东盟主要国家宏观经济仍保持平稳,多数国家通货膨胀有所缓解,失业率下降,财政预算赤字缩减,国际收支状况有所改善。面对世界经济的滞胀,各国适时调整宏观经济政策,加大基础设施建设力度,推动产业数字化、绿色低碳转型,为东盟各国经济复苏提供新动能。展望2024年,世界经济仍处于复苏缓慢和深度调整中,但通货膨胀趋缓,电子信息产业呈复苏迹象,跨境旅游快速增长,亚洲新兴经济体仍是全球经济的重要增长极,东盟国家将得益于全球贸易的复苏,继续保持经济持续复苏的态势,预计经济增速将快于2023年,但仍面临着一系列严峻的挑战。In 2023,the economic growth of ASEAN countries failed to continue the strong recovery momentum of the previous year as the growth rates were lower than those of 2022 and the expected target of the governments.From the perspective of demand structure,private consumption and government expenditure in ASEAN countries gradually increased,the fixed capital formation expanded,but import and export generally declined;from the perspective of supply structure,the three sectors(agriculture,manufacturing and service industries)in ASEAN countries maintained a recovery in general,but manufacturing industry in some of the countries shrunk;in terms of economic growth,the Philippines grew the fastest,followed by Vietnam,Indonesia,Malaysia,Thailand and Singapore.However,in the context of global economic turmoil,the macro-economy of major ASEAN countries remained stable with the easing inflation,decreasing unemployment rates,shrinking fiscal deficits and improved balance of payments in most countries.Faced with the stagflation of the world economy,ASEAN countries adjusted their macroeconomic policies in a timely manner,increasing investment in infrastructure construction,and promoted industrial digitalization and green and low-carbon transformation,providinga new driving force for economic recovery in ASEAN.In 2024,the world economy will still be in a slow recovery and deep adjustment.The inflation is slowing down,electronic information industry is showing signs of recovery,cross-border tourism is growing rapidly,and emerging economies in Asia are still important growth poles of the global economy.ASEAN countries will benefit from the recovery of global trade and maintain a sustained economic recovery.Hence,it is expected that the economic growth will be faster than that of last year,but still face a series of severe challenges.

关 键 词：东盟国家 经济复苏 宏观政策 产业转型 

分 类 号：F133[经济管理—世界经济]