1957—2022年辽河流域降雨时空演变规律分析  

Analysis of the spatial-temporal evolution patterns of rainfall in the Liaohe River Basin from 1957 to 2022

作　　者：安彦宜 AN Yanyi(Liaoning Dalian Hydrological Bureau,Dalian 116000,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省大连水文局,辽宁大连116000

出　　处：《水利建设与管理》2024年第4期64-70,共7页Water Conservancy Construction and Management

摘　　要：为响应水利部对海河流域“23·7”流域性特大洪水暴露短板所提意见,加快构建雨水情监测预报“三道防线”工作,精准监测并分析流域暴雨时空分布,本研究基于辽河流域30座国家雨量站点1957—2022年共66年逐日降雨实测数据,采用Mann-kendall检验、小波分析、空间矩评价等方法,以年降雨量为周期对辽河流域降雨的时空演变特征进行定量分析。结果表明,辽河流域年降雨量波动显著,年际、年代变幅分别为-50.5%~73.4%、-19.4%~32.7%;研究期间降雨量整体呈现出缓慢下降的趋势,趋势率为-2.2mm/10a;时间分布上仅有3段时间具有显著周期性,分别为1960—1982年、1988—1995年及2005—2014年。空间分布上差异显著,流域上游降雨普遍集中,下游降雨较为分散,研究期间降雨中心逐渐向下游转移且降雨越发集中。研究成果可为辽河流域加强雨水情监测预报“第二道防线”建设提供数据支撑。In response to the Ministry of Water Resources’suggestions regarding the shortcomings exposed by the 7·23 major basin-wide flood in the Haihe River Basin,efforts are being accelerated to construct a“three-tier defense line”for rain and hydrological monitoring and forecasting.This includes precise monitoring and analysis of the spatial-temporal distribution of torrential rains in the basin.This study is based on daily rainfall data from 1957 to 2022,spanning 66 years,collected from 30 national rainfall stations in the Liaohe River Basin.Methods such as the Mann-Kendall test,wavelet analysis,and spatial moment evaluation were used to quantitatively analyze the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of rainfall in the Liaohe River Basin,with annual rainfall as the cycle.The results show that the annual rainfall in the Liaohe River Basin fluctuates significantly,with inter-annual and decadal variation ranges of-50.5%to 73.4%and-19.4%to 32.7%,respectively.During the study period,the overall rainfall showed a slow declining trend,with a trend rate of-2.2mm/10 years.In terms of temporal distribution,only three periods exhibited significant periodicity:1960-1982,1988-1995,and 2005-2014.Spatially,the differences are significant,with rainfall generally concentrated in the upper reaches of the basin and more dispersed in the lower reaches.Over the study period,the rainfall center gradually shifted downstream,and the rainfall became increasingly concentrated.The results of this study can provide data support for strengthening the construction of the“second line of defense”in rain and hydrological monitoring and forecasting in the Liaohe River Basin.

关 键 词：辽河流域 降雨时空演变规律 MANN-KENDALL检验 小波分析 降雨空间矩 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]