产业集聚与对外开放对工业韧性提升的影响——基于设立粤港澳大湾区的准自然实验  

The Impact of Industrial Agglomeration and Opening-up on Industrial Resilience-Based on a Quasi-natural Experiment of the Establishment of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

作　　者：徐明威 林先扬[2] 毛逸勋 Xu Mingwei;Lin Xianyang;Mao Yixun(Guangdong Provincial Party School of the Communist Party of China)

机构地区：[1]中共广东省委党校 [2]中共广东省委党校决策咨询部

出　　处：《调研世界》2024年第5期75-85,共11页The World of Survey and Research

基　　金：广东省委党校2023年度重大委托调研课题“‘以百县千镇万村高质量发程工程’推进城乡区域协调发展的广东实践研究”(XYZDWT202303);2023年国家社科基金一般项目“数字经济赋能粤港澳大湾区协同创新发展的机理与路径研究”(23BJL114)的资助。

摘　　要：本文运用2010-2020年36个工业城市面板数据,以粤港澳大湾区的设立为准自然实验,基于产业集聚与对外开放视角,利用DID模型揭示粤港澳大湾区战略对工业韧性提升的影响、机制与路径。结果发现,粤港澳大湾区战略确实提高了工业韧性,且其影响具有一定持续性。机制分析发现,粤港澳大湾区战略能够通过产业集聚和对外开放两种渠道推动工业韧性的提升,且二者的协同作用强化了粤港澳大湾区战略的政策效应。异质性分析发现,城市规模大小和城市发展阶段也会影响粤港澳大湾区战略提升工业韧性的程度。本文的研究为后续优化粤港澳大湾区战略效应提供政策启示。Based on the panel data of 36 industrial cities from 2010 to 2020,this paper takes the establishment of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in 2017 as a quasi-natural experiment,and uses the DID model to reveal the impact,mechanism and path of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area strategy on the improvement of industrial resilience from the perspective of industrial agglomeration and opening-up.The results show that the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area strategy has indeed improved industrial resilience,and its impact has a certain persistence.Mechanism analysis finds that the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area strategy can promote the improvement of industrial resilience through two channels—industrial agglomeration and opening-up,and the synergistic effect of the two has strengthened the policy effect of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area strategy.Heterogeneity analysis shows that city size and urban development stage also affect the degree to which the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area strategy enhances industrial resilience.Therefore,it provides policy inspiration for optimizing the effect of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area strategy in the future.

关 键 词：粤港澳大湾区 工业韧性 产业集聚 对外开放 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]