Risk Assessment of Deep-Water Horizontal X-Tree Installation  

作　　者：MENG Wen-bo FU Guang-ming HUANG Yi LIU Shu-jie HUANG Liang GAOYong-hai 

机构地区：[1]CNOOC China Limited,Zhanjiang Branch,Zhanjiang 524057,China [2]Key Laboratory of Unconventional Oil and Gas Development,Ministry of Education(China University of Petroleum(East China)),Qingdao 266580,China

出　　处：《China Ocean Engineering》2024年第2期210-220,共11页中国海洋工程（英文版）

基　　金：financially supported by the National Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Innovation Special Project-Engineering Demonstration Application of Subsea Production System,Topic 4:Research on Subsea X-Tree and Wellhead Offshore Testing Technology(Grant No.MC-201901-S01-04);the Key Research and Development Program of Shandong Province(Major Innovation Project)(Grant Nos.2022CXGC020405,2023CXGC010415)。

摘　　要：Due to the high potential risk and many influencing factors of subsea horizontal X-tree installation,to guarantee the successful completion of sea trials of domestic subsea horizontal X-trees,this paper established a modular risk evaluation model based on a fuzzy fault tree.First,through the analysis of the main process oftree down and combining the Offshore&Onshore Reliability Data(OREDA)failure statistics and the operation procedure and the data provided by the job,the fault tree model of risk analysis of the tree down installation was established.Then,by introducing the natural language of expert comprehensive evaluation and combining fuzzy principles,quantitative analysis was carried out,and the fuzzy number was used to calculate the failure probability of a basic event and the occurrence probability of a top event.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of basic events,the basic events of top events significantly affected were determined,and risk control and prevention measures for the corresponding high-risk factors were proposed for subsea horizontal X-tree down installation.

关 键 词：subsea horizontal X-tree risk assessment fuzzy fault tree modular risk evaluation model 

分 类 号：TE95[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]