基于灰色系统理论的我国卫生总费用之预测  

Prediction of Total Health Costs in China Based on Grey System Theory

作　　者：梁桂珍[1] 王艳丽 LIANG Guizhen;WANG Yanli(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Xinxiang University,Xinxiang 453003,China;School of Mathematical Sciences,Henan Institute of Science and Technology,Xinxiang 453003,China)

机构地区：[1]新乡学院数学与统计学院,河南新乡453003 [2]河南科技学院数学科学学院,河南新乡453003

出　　处：《新乡学院学报》2024年第3期5-9,共5页Journal of Xinxiang University

基　　金：河南省高等学校重点科学研究项目(20B110014)。

摘　　要：利用我国2008—2020年卫生总费用及相关统计数据分别建立了GM(1,1)、FHGM(1,1)、DGM(1,1)和OFHGM(1,1)4种灰色预测模型。利用平均绝对百分比误差研究了这些模型的性能,结果表明:与GM(1,1)、FHGM(1,1)和DGM(1,1)模型相比,OFHGM(1,1)模型的预测精度最高。Four grey prediction models GM(1,1),FHGM(1,1),DGM(1,1)and OFHGM(1,1)are established based on the total health expenditure and relevant statistics from 2008 to 2020 in China.The average absolute percentage error is used to compare the performance of these models.The results show that OFHGM(1,1)model has the highest simulation accuracy and is more accurate than the other three models.

关 键 词：卫生总费用 灰色预测模型 FHGM(1 1) 背景值优化 

分 类 号：O175[理学—数学]