中国农业现代化发展水平的空间格局与分布动态演进  

Spatial Pattern and Distribution Dynamic Evolution of China’s Agricultural Modernization Development Level

作　　者：冀玄玄 姜军松[1] Ji Xuanxuan;Jiang Junsong(Business School,Xiangtan University,Xiangtan Hunan 411105,China)

机构地区：[1]湘潭大学商学院,湖南湘潭411105

出　　处：《统计与决策》2024年第9期112-117,共6页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(21AJL004)。

摘　　要：农业现代化是中国式现代化的重要基础,加快推进农业现代化成为全面建设社会主义现代化强国的必然要求。文章在构建评价指标体系的基础上,采用多指标综合评价法测算了2005—2020年中国31个省份的农业现代化发展水平,并利用Kernel密度估计、Moran’s I和Markov链分析方法全面考察了农业现代化发展水平的空间分布格局及其动态演进特征。结果表明:(1)中国农业现代化发展水平整体呈上升态势,“东高西低”的空间分布格局较为显著。(2)总体而言,中国农业现代化发展水平呈“左高右低”的“偏左”分布特征,样本期内低水平集聚态势逐渐改善,并且不同区域农业现代化发展水平的分布形态存在差异。(3)中国农业现代化发展水平的变化趋势较为稳定,并且具有显著的空间正相关关系,处于较高发展水平的省份对邻近省份具有明显的带动作用。Agricultural modernization is an important foundation for Chinese path to modernization,and accelerating agricultural modernization has become an inevitable requirement for building a great modern socialist country in an all-round way.Based on the construction of evaluation index system,this paper uses multi-index comprehensive evaluation method to estimate the development level of agricultural modernization in China’s 31 provinces from 2005 to 2020,and then adopts Kernel density estimation,Moran’s I and Markov chain analysis method to investigate the spatial distribution pattern and dynamic evolution of agricultural modernization development level.The results go as below:(1)The overall development level of agricultural modernization in China is on the rise,and the spatial distribution pattern of“high in the east and low in the west”is relatively significant.(2)In general,the development level of agricultural modernization in China presents a“left-sided”distribution feature of“high on the left and low on the right”.During the sample period,the low-level agglomeration trend gradually improved,and the distribution pattern of agricultural modernization development level was different in different regions.(3)The change trend of agricultural modernization development level in China is relatively stable.There is a significant spatial positive correlation,and the provinces with higher development level have an obvious driving effect on neighboring provinces.

关 键 词：农业现代化 评价指标体系 空间格局 动态演进 

分 类 号：F320.1[经济管理—产业经济]