基于世界田径锦标赛成绩分析巴黎奥运会田径项目成绩发展态势及灰色预测  

Development Trend Analysis and Grey Prediction of Athletics Performance at Paris Olympic Games based on the Results of World Athletics Championships

作　　者：彭锦强 敬龙军 陈戍银 陈代文 Peng Jinqiang;Jing Longjun;Chen Shuyin;Chen Daiwen(College of Physical Education,Hunan University of Science and Technology,Xiangtan 411201,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学体育学院,湖南湘潭411201

出　　处：《体育科技文献通报》2024年第4期20-26,共7页Bulletin of Sport Science & Technology

基　　金：湖南省哲学社会科学(项目编号:18YBA162)。

摘　　要：本文运用文献资料法、数理统计法、比较分析法、灰色预测法等研究方法,对第15至第19届世界田径锦标赛各项目的发展态势进行分析,运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)理论对2024年巴黎奥运会田径各项目冠军运动员成绩进行预测。结果显示,(1)世锦赛速度性项群的发展除女子100 m跨栏跑和400 m跨栏跑有显著提升外,其余项目发展相对较慢,且女子发展要好于男子;(2)世锦赛耐力性项群发展稳定性较差,距离越长的项目其冠军成绩的起伏越大;(3)世锦赛快速力量性项群上男子投掷类项目整体水平保持较高,男子撑杆跳高近几年有刷新世界纪录外,其余男子和女子项目发展相对滞后且缓慢,仍有很大发展空间;(4)世锦赛综合类项群整体呈上升趋势,男子十项全能和女子七项全能都保持着较高的水平;(5)目前中国田径队拥有巴黎奥运会参赛资格的运动员共有26人,人数较少,达标项目单一且集中,形势较为严峻;(6)竞走类项目和女子投掷类项目仍是我国在巴黎奥运会田径比赛中的主力军,获奖牌可能性最大;(7)通过分析预测数据,2024年巴黎奥运会田径各项目冠军成绩整体有上升趋势,个别项目有望刷新世界纪录。In this paper,the mathematical statistics,comparative analysis,grey prediction and other research methods are used to analyze the development trend of the 15"to 19"World Athletics Championships,and the grey prediction model GM(1,1)theory is used to predict the results of the champions in the athletics events of the 2024 Paris Olympic Games.The results show that:(1)The development of speed events in the World Athletics Championships is relatively slow except for women's 100m hurdles and 400m hurdles,and women's development is better than men's.(2)The development stability of endurance events in the World Athletics Championships is poor,and the longer the distance,the greater the fluctuation of championship results;(3)The overall level of men's throwing events in the fast power event group of the World Athletics Championships remains high,except for men's pole vault,which has set a new world record in recent years.The development of other men's and women's events is relatively backward and slow,and there is still a lot of room for development;(4)The comprehensive category of the World Athletics Championships shows an overall upward trend,with men's decathlon and women's heptathlon maintaining a high level;(5)At present,there are a total of 26 athletes in the Chinese tathletics team qualified for the Paris Olympic Games,which is relatively small in number,and the standard events are single and concentrated,and the situation is relatively severe;(6)Race walking and women's throwing events are stll the main forces in the athletics competitions of China in the Paris Olympic Games,with the greatest possibility of winning medals;(7)Through the analysis of the forecast data,the overall champion results of the athletics events at the 2024 Paris Olympic Games have an upward trend,and individual events are expected to set a new world record.

关 键 词：世界田径锦标赛 巴黎奥运会 田径 灰色预测 

分 类 号：G82[文化科学—体育训练]