基于中断时间序列模型对河北省扩大免疫规划前后风疹防控效果评价分析  

Evaluation and analysis of rubella prevention and control effect before and after expanded program on immunization in Hebei Province based on interrupted time series model

作　　者：周然[1] 雷子龙 邹显东 马晓江[1] 曾娟[1] 董辉[1] ZHOU Ran;LEI Zilong;ZOU Xiandong;MA Xiaojiang;ZENG Juan;DONG Hui(Public Health Information Institute,Hebei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;The Second Clinical College of Tongji Medical College,Huazhong University of Science and Technology;Hebei Provincial Health Commission Project Office)

机构地区：[1]河北省疾病预防控制中心公共卫生信息所,河北石家庄050021 [2]华中科技大学同济医学院第二临床学院 [3]河北省卫生健康委项目办

出　　处：《华南预防医学》2024年第2期99-103,共5页South China Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：河北省医学科学研究计划课题(20231187,20231189)。

摘　　要：目的了解河北省扩大免疫规划前后风疹发病率的变化情况,对其预防效果给予短期和长期评价。方法采集2004—2022年河北省风疹报告发病情况,通过中断时间序列建立多元线性回归模型。依据求得斜率和系数对扩大免疫规划前后效果给予评价。结果2004—2022年共报告风疹25690例,报告年平均发病率为1.925/10万,占丙类传染病报告发病数的1.00%。中断时间序列回归模型分析结果表明2004—2008年扩大免疫规划前风疹报告发病率呈上升趋势(β_(1)=0.0043,P<0.05);2009年为扩大免疫规划后第1年,短期干预效果良好,报告发病率较免疫前有所下降;2009—2022年进入扩大免疫规划后阶段报告发病率下降(β_(3)=-0.0056,P<0.05);扩大免疫规划后报告发病率整体呈下降趋势(β_(1)+β_(3)=-0.0013)。报告年平均发病率由扩大免疫规划前的3.938/10万下降到扩大免疫规划后的1.206/10万。结论使用中断时间序列回归模型对风疹实施扩大免疫规划前后效果评价,可外推至其他传染病或疾病的免疫与治疗效果评价。可为专业人员提供新的方法和思路。Objective To understand the change of rubella incidence before and after the expanded program on immunization(EPI)in Hebei Province and give short-term and long-term evaluation of its preventive effect.Methods The incidence of rubella report in Hebei Province from 2004 to 2022 was collected,and a multiple linear regression model was established by interrupted time series analysis.According to the slope and coefficient,the effect of the EPI was evaluat-ed.Results From 2004 to 2022,a total of 25690 cases of rubella were reported,the reported annual average incidence was 1.925/100000,accounting for 1.00%of the reported incidence of Class C infectious diseases.Results of interrupted time series regression model analysis indicated an increasing incidence of rubella reports before EPI in 2004-2008(β_(1)=0.0043,P<0.05).In 2009,for the first year after the EPI,the short-term intervention worked well,reported a decrease in incidence from previously.A decrease in incidence was reported in the post-EPI phase from 2009 to 2022(β_(3)=-0.0056,P<0.05).There was an overall downward trend in reported incidence after EPI(β_(1)+β_(3)=-0.0013).The reported annual aver-age incidence decreased from 3.938/100000 before EPI to 1.206/100000 after EPI.Conclusions The use of interrupted time series regression model to evaluate the efficacy of rubella before and after the implementation of EPI can be extruded to other infectious diseases or diseases.It can provide new methods and ideas for professionals.

关 键 词：中断时间序列 免疫规划 防控 效果 评价 

分 类 号：R186.3[医药卫生—流行病学]