甘肃省生态-经济-社会系统耦合协调发展趋势及其影响因素  

Coupling Coordination Development Trends and Influencing Factors of Ecology-Economy-Society System in Gansu Province

作　　者：温煜华[1] Wen Yuhua(Gansu Development Research Institute,Department of Social and Ecological Civilization,Gansu Provincial Party School,Lanzhou 730000)

机构地区：[1]中共甘肃省委党校(甘肃行政学院)社会和生态文明教研部,兰州730070

出　　处：《甘肃行政学院学报》2023年第6期113-123,128,共12页Journal of Gansu Administration Institute

基　　金：甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目“甘肃省生态功能区生态产业发展研究”(2021YB141);甘肃省重大项目研究阐释第十四次党代会精神专项“甘肃省打造西部生态安全屏障研究”(ZD007);2022年甘肃省委党校创新工程科研咨询项目“甘肃省加快绿色转型发展对策研究”(2022ZX01)。

摘　　要：生态环境与经济社会的协调发展是可持续发展的热点问题。本研究构建了甘肃省生态—经济—社会系统耦合协调的评价指标体系,运用耦合度和耦合协调度模型,测算分析了2011—2021年甘肃省生态—经济—社会的耦合协调程度及演变趋势,运用Pearson相关系数法分析耦合协调的影响因素。结果表明:(1)甘肃省生态综合指数起点最低,增速最快,其次为社会综合指数,增长最慢的是经济综合指数;(2)甘肃省生态—经济—社会系统耦合协调发展水平呈现不断上升的趋势,经历了2011年轻度失调—2012年濒临失调—2013年勉强协调—2014年至2015年初级协调—2016年至2017年中级协调—2018年至2021年良好协调六个发展阶段,耦合协调水平提高主要是由生态环境改善引起的;(3)产业结构、科技水平、政府宏观政策是提升耦合协调度的关键因素,人口密度、第二产业占比、三废排放量、万元GDP能耗是制约协调度发展的约束因素。The coupling and coordination relationship between ecological environment and social economy is a hot spot for sustain⁃able development.Taking Gansu Province as the research object,this paper construct a comprehensive evaluation index system of coupling and coordination degree for ecology-economy-society system,with the help of coupling coordination degree model and Pearson correlation coefficient,calculated coupling coordination degree and analyzed the trends and influencing factors from 2011 to 2021.The results shows that:(1)The ecological comprehensive index in Gansu Province has the lowest starting point and the fast⁃est growth rate,followed by the social comprehensive index,the slowest growth rate is economic comprehensive index.(2)The cou⁃pling and coordination degree present a stable upward trend,going through stages from mild imbalance(2011)to near imbalance(2012),barely coordinated(2013),primary coordination(2014-2016),intermediate coordination(2017),and good coordinated de⁃velopment(2018-2021).The improvement of coupling coordination level is mainly caused by the improvement of ecological envi⁃ronment.(3)Industrial structure,economic growth,technological level,environmental governance,and public services were key fac⁃tors in enhancing coupling coordination,the proportion of the secondary industry,emissions of three wastes,energy consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP,Engel’s coefficient were the main hindering factors for the improvement of the coupling coordination.

关 键 词：生态环境 社会经济 耦合协调度 影响因素 甘肃省 

分 类 号：F129[经济管理—世界经济] F062.2