中美博弈:近昔和当今及对中国战略的意涵  

The Game between China and the United States: Past, Present, and its Implications for China's Strategy

作　　者：时殷弘[1,2] Shi Yinhong

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国际关系学院 [2]中国人民大学美国研究中心,北京100872

出　　处：《亚太安全与海洋研究》2024年第3期19-35,I0002,共18页Asia-Pacific Security and Maritime Affairs

摘　　要：过去15年里,中美关系的首要特征是博弈而非协调。两国博弈先在战略阵线开启,继而在战略、经贸、高技术和意识形态四条主要阵线展开。就中美博弈总体而言,美国处于“防守型”战略态势,美国认为它长时期拥有的重大优势地位一个又一个地丧失或被侵蚀,首要动能在中国一边。中共十八大以来,中国逐渐成为一个急剧腾升的强国。大为增强的国力,使中国更加坚定了自信和抱负。中国内外发力,争取在世界政治经济和全球治理的某些问题领域参与引领甚或单独引领,实现在亚洲大陆以及发展中世界的经济和外交优势,大致取得在西太平洋的对美战略和军事优势,进一步地,对第一至第二岛链之间的战略空间的控扼能力愈益被视为必要。回顾奥巴马、特朗普和拜登三届美国政府的对华态势和政策,对未来中美关系应做好准备应对可能的疾风暴雨。Over the past 15 years, the primary characteristic of China US relations has been game rather than coordination. The game between the two countries begins on the strategic front, and then unfolds on the four main fronts of strategy, economy and trade, high-tech, and ideology. In terms of the overall game between China and the United States, the United States is in a “defensive” strategic posture. The United States believes that its significant advantageous position over the long term has been lost and eroded one after another, with the primary driving force on China's side. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China has gradually become a rapidly rising strong country. The greatly enhanced national strength has strengthened China's confidence and aspirations. China is making efforts both domestically and internationally to participate or even take a leading role in certain areas of world politics, economy, and global governance, achieving economic and diplomatic advantages in the Asian continent and the developing world, and roughly gaining strategic and military advantages against the United States in the Western Pacific. Furthermore, the ability to control the strategic space between the first and second island chains is increasingly seen as necessary. Reviewing the posture and policies of the three administrations of Obama, Trump and Biden towards China, we should be prepared for possible storms in the future relationship between China and the US..

关 键 词：中美关系 中美博弈 战略博弈 中国战略 亚太地区 南海 

分 类 号：D820[政治法律—政治学]