“垄断”与“共享”:美国延伸核威慑的亚欧差异  

“Monopoly” and “Sharing”:Divergences of U.S. Extended Nuclear Deterrence in Asia and Europe

作　　者：顾全 Gu Quan

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学东亚国际问题研究中心,南京210023

出　　处：《亚太安全与海洋研究》2024年第3期55-72,I0003,共19页Asia-Pacific Security and Maritime Affairs

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“日本‘非对称制华’海上战略研究”(编号:20YJCGJW001)。

摘　　要：对外实施“延伸核威慑”,是美国建设和维系同盟的基础工具,但在不同地区的实践模式却有显著差异。20世纪50年代末开始,美国为解决在欧洲开展延伸核威慑遭遇的“可信度”缺陷难题,逐步构建起北约“核共享”机制。在同期东亚的延伸核威慑中,美国不仅未向日韩推介类似方案,反而继续固守“核垄断”模式。日韩与美国相对更大的权力差距、关键时期缺乏重大危机,是妨碍美日和美韩同盟建立北约式“核共享”的两大主要因素,而前者更具决定意义。美国在冷战后从东亚撤出所有陆基战术核武器,关闭了日韩争取“核共享”的机会之窗,但在如今全球变局与地区秩序加速演进的大势下,不能完全排除美国未来大幅改造东亚延伸核威慑模式的可能。“Extended nuclear deterrence” has been the basic means of the United States to build and maintain alliances from the Cold War to the present. But its modes of operation can be widely different in terms of regions. Since the late 1950s, the United States has gradually built up a “nuclear sharing” mechanism within NATO to address the “credibility” problem of extended nuclear deterrence in Europe. In contrast, during the same period in East Asia, the U.S. has not introduced a similar program to its two major allies, namely Japan and South Korea, and continued to adhere to the “nuclear monopoly” model. This research argues that “the larger power gap between East Asian allies and the United States” as well as “the lack of major crisis events during the critical periods” are the two main factors preventing the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-South Korea alliances from reaching “nuclear sharing” of NATO style. Of these, the effect of the former factor is more decisive. In addition, the U.S. withdrawal of all land-based tactical nuclear weapons from East Asia at the end of the Cold War completely eliminated the opportunity for Japan and South Korea to pursue “nuclear sharing.” Nevertheless, in the context of global and regional changes, the possibility that the U.S. would significantly change the extended nuclear deterrence mode in East Asia cannot be completely ruled out.

关 键 词：美国 美日同盟 美韩同盟 欧洲盟国 延伸核威慑 核垄断 核共享 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学]