基于LDA-RBF及综合赋权法的顶板突水危险性评价  

Roof water inrush risk assessment based on LDA-RBF and comprehensive weighting method

作　　者：王孝坤 郑禄林 兰红 谢红东[3] 田友稳 胥进 WANG Xiaokun;ZHENG Lulin;LAN Hong;XIE Hongdong;TIAN Youwen;XU Jin(Mining College of Guizhou University,Guiyang 550000,China;Longfeng Coal Mine,Guizhou Lindong Coal Industry Development Co.,Ltd.,Bijie 551800,China;Guizhou Coalfield Geology Bureau Team 174,Guiyang 550081,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州大学矿业学院,贵州贵阳550000 [2]贵州林东煤业发展有限责任公司龙凤煤矿,贵州毕节551800 [3]贵州省煤田地质局一七四队,贵州贵阳550081

出　　处：《煤矿安全》2024年第4期187-196,共10页Safety in Coal Mines

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52164006);贵州省科技支撑计划资助项目(黔科合支撑[2022]一般248);贵州大学青年教师国家自然科学基金培育资助项目(贵大培育[2020]81号)。

摘　　要：为了解决龙凤煤矿9号煤层开采过程中顶板突水危险性问题,采用线性判别分析法(LDA)构建1种LDA-RBF神经网络导水裂隙带发育高度预测模型,并基于改进CRITIC评价法结合层次分析法(AHP)建立了CRITIC-AHP综合赋权法,分别评价矿区顶板采裂危险性及含水层富水性等级;通过ArcGis地理信息处理技术,将采裂危险性分区与富水性分区叠加,得到9号煤层顶板突水危险性综合分区图。结果表明:LDA-RBF神经网络预测模型结构简单且拟合精度更高,9号煤层导水裂隙带发育预测高度为50.4 m,已超过区域内大部分含水层底界标高,表明大部分区域存在较高的采裂危险性;而改进后的综合赋权法避免了评价结果主客观性过强的问题,其富水性分区结果与钻孔实际涌水量相符;突水危险区主要在矿区中北部呈条状分布,这是该区域含水层富水性较强和采裂危险性较高共同作用的结果,因此,在实际开采中应对以上区域予以重视。In order to solve the problem of roof water inrush risk during the mining of No.9 coal seam in Longfeng Coal Mine,an LDA-RBF neural network model for predicting the development height of water-conduction fracture zone was constructed by linear discriminant analysis(LDA),and a CRITIC-AHP comprehensive weighting method was established based on the improved CRITIC evaluation method combined with analytic hierarchy method(AHP)to evaluate the risk of roof cracking and the water richness level of the aquifer in the mining area.Through ArcGis geographic information processing technology,the cracking risk zone and the water-rich zone are superimposed to obtain a comprehensive zoning map of the water inrush risk of the roof of No.9 coal seam.The results show that the LDA-RBF neural network prediction model has a simple structure and higher fitting accuracy,and the development prediction height of the No.9 coal seam water-conducting fracture zone is 50.4 m,which has exceeded the bottom boundary level of most aquifers in the area,indicating that there is a high risk of cracking in most areas.The improved comprehensive weighting method avoids the problem of excessive subjectivity and objectivity of the evaluation results,and the water-rich zoning results are consistent with the actual water inflow of the borehole.Finally,the water inrush danger zone is mainly distributed in strips in the central and northern parts of the mining area,which is the result of the combined effect of strong water richness and high cracking risk of the aquifer in this area,indicating that the above areas should be paid attention to in actual mining.

关 键 词：RBF神经网络 综合赋权法 ArcGis 导水裂隙带高度 突水危险性 

分 类 号：TD745[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]