中国城市区域高质量发展时空分异及影响因素  

Spatio-temporal differentiation and influencing factors of high-quality development of cities in China

作　　者：伏润得 杨振山[1,2] FU Runde;YANG Zhenshan(Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所、中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《地理学报》2024年第4期819-836,共18页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42271249,42142022)。

摘　　要：全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程下,高质量发展必然是秉轴持钧的关键。基于新发展理念,通过梳理城市高质量发展的理论内涵,构建了包含创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享在内的5个维度的综合评价指标体系,并运用空间分析、俱乐部收敛检验以及空间杜宾模型分析了2005—2020年中国城市发展质量的时空演变特征及其影响因素。结果显示,研究期间中国城市发展质量平均水平提升了48.4%,低水平城市数量显著缩减,城市发展质量的空间分布模式发生转变且空间聚集特征显著;城市发展质量不平衡的局面尚未根本扭转,差距弥合挑战仍然较大,且高质量发展进程中城市间存在显著的角色分化,在全国及区域层面均形成“示范—追赶”模式,其中北京、上海、深圳等11个城市成为高质量发展的先行者;城镇化、政府投资、数字经济、环境规制以及经济增长均能显著促进城市发展质量水平的提升,城市规模与发展质量则呈现倒“U”型关系。新时期实现中国城市高质量发展目标仍需要在中西部地区持续着力,发挥先行者的示范作用,需要持续推动数量增长、强化环境规制、培育数字经济新业态以及优化城市规模体系。The quality of development is crucial for China to comprehensively build a socialist modern country.Drawing on related concepts of development in quality,the paper conceptualizes a city in high-quality development and proposes a stylish framework with five dimensions to evaluate it,in line with the New Development Philosophy,which is composed of innovation,coordination,greenness,openness and sharing.Using the methods of spatial analysis,club convergence test and spatial Durbin model,the paper identified the spatial evolution of the quality of city development in China and associated determinants during 2005-2020.On average,the level of city development quality increased by 48.4%during the study period.The number of cities at low-level of quality in development decreased dramatically,accompanied by a profound transformation in the spatial pattern of city development quality,which presents significant spatial aggregation.The spatial imbalance remains for cities with different development qualities,and the challenge is still huge to narrow the gap.With significant role differentiation among cities,a"pioneering-catching up"pattern emerges,and the 11 pioneering cities such as Beijing,Shanghai and Shenzhen have become the pioneers of high-quality development in China.Key determinants for cities achieving high quality in development includes urbanization level,public investment,digital economy,environmental regulation and economic growth,while there is inverted U-shaped relationship between city size and development quality.To achieve the goal of high-quality city development in the new era,it is necessary to focus on the development of cities in the central and western regions,making full use of the demonstration role of pioneers,promoting quantitative growth,strengthening environmental regulations,cultivating the new forms of digital economy,and optimizing the city size hierarchy.

关 键 词：城市 高质量发展 时空格局 俱乐部收敛 空间杜宾模型 中国 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]