中国县域城投债的时空分布及成因分析  

Spatio-temporal distribution and causes of county-level urban construction and investment bonds in China

作　　者：王鑫静 姜炎鹏[1] 武力超[2] 马仁锋[3] WANG Xinjing;JIANG Yanpeng;WU Lichao;MA Renfeng(School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;School of Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,Fujian,China;Department of Geography and Spatial Information Techniques,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200241 [2]厦门大学经济学院,厦门361005 [3]宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系,宁波315211

出　　处：《地理学报》2024年第4期949-970,共22页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42271216);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(20YJAH041);国家社会科学基金项目(21BJL088)。

摘　　要：地方政府债务快速扩张与急剧积累已成为影响地区经济社会健康可持续发展的重点与难点问题之一。基于县域城投债与公共预算收支等经济社会属性数据,运用空间自相关、Tobit模型等方法探究了中国县域政府债务的时空演变特征及异质性成因。结果表明:①2007—2020年中国县域城投债发行规模趋于扩张,城投债发行呈现明显的“政策债”特征,且具有明显的地区差异及行业集聚特征;研究期内县域城投债分布范围趋于扩大且具有明显的空间集聚特征,冷点区及热点区均集中分布于“胡焕庸线”以东县域;②现行地方财税体制下中国县域基层财政运行困难,财政压力与发展压力是驱动县域城投债扩张的关键因素;③县域城投债扩张机制呈现明显的区域差异及行业差异。财政压力对非市辖区、非省会县域等欠发达县域的城投债扩张具有显著促进作用,发展压力对东部县域、城市群县域等竞争发展相对激烈县域发债的刺激作用较为突出;财政压力对房地产业与基础设施行业发债具有负向影响,发展压力对房地产业和建筑业发债具有促进作用。本文为理解县域政府债务扩张提供了新的视角,也为控制县域政府债务规模无序扩张及防范地方政府债务风险提供了参考借鉴。The rapid expansion and accumulation of local government debt has become one of the critical and difficult issues affecting the sustainable development of regional economies and societies.Using economic and social attribute data such as county-level urban construction and investment bonds and public budget revenue and expenditure,this study employed methods such as spatial autocorrelation and Tobit model to investigate the spatio-temporal development characteristics and heterogeneous causes of public debt at the county level in China.The results show that:(1)From 2007 to 2020,the issuance amount of urban construction and investment bonds at the county level in China tended to expand,showing distinct characteristics of"policy debt"with obvious regional disparities and industry clusters.Throughout the study period,the distribution area of urban construction and investment bonds at the county level showed an expansion trend with clear spatial clustering characteristics,with hotspots and coldspots concentrated in the counties east of the Hu Huanyong Line.(2)Under the current local tax and levy system in China,grassroots financial operations in counties are facing challenges,among which fiscal pressure and development pressure are the key factors for the expansion of urban construction and investment bonds at the county level.(3)The proliferation mechanism of urban construction and investment bonds at the county level shows significant regional and sectoral differences.Fiscal pressure significantly encourages the proliferation of these bonds in underdeveloped districts,e.g.outside municipal jurisdictions and provincial capitals,development pressure particularly stimulates bond issuance in districts of the eastern region and districts within competitive urban clusters.Fiscal pressure has a negative impact on bond issuance in the real estate and infrastructure sectors,while development pressure favours bond issuance in the real estate and construction sectors.This study provides a new perspective for understanding the e

关 键 词：城投债 时空分布 异质性成因 县域 中国 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]