考虑诱增运量的高铁快运组合预测模型  

Combined Prediction Model of High Speed Railway Considering Inducement of Increasing Traffic Volume

作　　者：胡雅婷 许涛 汤银英[1,2,3] 陈思 王小卫[4] HU Yating;XU Tao;TANG Yinying;CHEN Si;WANG Xiaowei(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation,Chengdu 611756,China;National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Transportation Big Data Application Technology,Chengdu 611756,China;Kunming Railway Administration,Kunming 650011,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学,交通运输与物流学院,成都611756 [2]综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室,成都611756 [3]综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,成都611756 [4]中国铁路昆明局集团有限公司,昆明650011

出　　处：《综合运输》2024年第4期141-149,共9页China Transportation Review

基　　金：中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划课题(P2021X013),(N2021X020),(K2022X027),(K2022X025)。

摘　　要：精准预测高铁快运运量,是制定科学的高铁快运运输组织模式及开行方案的前提。本文在使用组合预测模型预测高铁节点城市快运OD分布的基础上,结合重力模型,基于交通与经济之间的内生关系对OD分布的预测结果进行诱增修正。以“南昆高铁”为例,预测南昆高铁节点城市2026年的高铁快运OD分布。预测结果表明:南昆高铁节点城市中,昆明的高铁快运运量最多,其次是南宁;且各节点城市的高铁快运到发量不均衡,昆明和南宁的发送运量大于到达运量,文山和百色的到达运量大于发送运量。预测结果与城市区位分析结果相符,验证了本文预测方法的合理性。本文提出的考虑诱增运量修正的组合预测模型更贴近现实情况,为高铁快运运量预测提供了新思路。Accurate prediction of high-speed rail(HSR)express transportation volume is the premise of formulating scientific transportation organization mode and operation plan.Based on the combination prediction model to predict OD distribution in HSR node cities,combined with gravity model,the prediction results of OD distribution are induced and modified based on the endogenous relationship between transportation and economy.Finally,this paper takes“Nan-Kunming”HSR as an example to predict the OD distribution of HSR express in 2026. The prediction results show that: among the node cities of Nan-KunmingHSR, Kunming has the largest volume of HSR express transportation, followed by Nanning. Moreover, theinbound and outbound volume of HSR express in each node city is unbalanced. The outbound volume ofKunming and Nan-Ning is greater than the inbound volume, and the inbound volume of Wen-Shan and Bai-Se is greater than the outbound volume. The prediction results are consistent with the results of urban locationanalysis, which verifies the rationality of the prediction method in this paper. In this paper, the combinedprediction model considering induced increase traffic volume correction is closer to the reality and provides anew idea for HSR express traffic volume prediction.

关 键 词：铁路运输 组合预测模型 诱增运量 高铁快运 OD分布 

分 类 号：U294[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]