京津冀协同发展促进产业优化升级的政策效应研究  

Research on Policy Effect of Coordinated Development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in Promoting Industrial Optimization and Upgrading

作　　者：刘俊腾 尚虎平 Liu Junteng;Shang Huping

机构地区：[1]南开大学周恩来政府管理学院,天津300350 [2]中国科学技术大学公共事务学院,合肥230026

出　　处：《区域经济评论》2024年第3期19-28,共10页Regional Economic Review

摘　　要：区域协同发展是优化产业布局、促进产业升级的重要政策载体。京津冀协同发展以产业协同为重点突破领域,而这一政策能否促进河北产业结构优化升级,目前还缺少经验证据。基于产业结构合理化和产业结构高度化的双重视角,以2015年京津冀协同发展政策的实施为准自然实验,利用合成控制法和2010-2021年省级面板数据,实证评估区域产业协同对河北产业结构优化升级的影响,并进一步廓清政策效应的空间异质性。结果表明:京津冀协同发展促进了河北产业结构高度化,高度化指数提高了0.023,但在产业结构合理化方面没有产生正向政策效应,该结论通过了一系列稳健性检验;进一步的异质性分析结果表明:京津冀协同发展对河北省内各地级市产生了异质性政策效应,邻近北京和天津的河北地级市并不具有区位优势,反而是河北南部的地级市产业结构升级效果明显。未来要科学推进京津冀协同发展过程中的产业转移和承接,兼顾产业结构层次跃迁和产业间协调耦合,建立合理的利益共享和成本分担机制,注重更精细化空间尺度上的都市圈产业协同,夯实河北产业发展的基础要素。Regional coordinated development is an important policy carrier to optimize industrial layout and promote industrial upgrading.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy focuses on industrial synergy,but there is still a lack of empirical evidence whether this policy can promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in Hebei Province.Based on the dual perspectives of industrial structure rationalization and industrial structure supererogation,this paper empirically evaluates the impact of regional industrial synergy on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in Hebei Province by using the synthetic control method and provincial panel data from 2010 to 2021,and further clarifies the spatial heterogeneity of policy effects.The results show that the implementation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy has promoted the upgrading of the industrial structure in Hebei Province,and the height index has increased by 0.023,but there is no positive policy effect in the rationalization of the industrial structure.Further heterogeneity analysis results show that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development policy has a heterogeneous policy effect on the prefecture-level cities in Hebei Province,and the cities in Hebei Province,which are adjacent to Beijing and Tianjin,do not have the geographical advantage,but the industrial structure upgrading effect of the cities in the south of Hebei Province is obvious.In the future,it is necessary to scientifically promote the industrial transfer and undertaking in the process of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei synergy,take into account the transition of industrial structure and the coordination and coupling between industries,establish a reasonable benefit sharing and cost sharing mechanism,pay attention to industrial synergy at the scale of the metropolitan area,and consolidate the basic elements of industrial development in Hebei Province.

关 键 词：京津冀协同发展 产业结构合理化 产业结构高度化 合成控制法 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]