人口老龄化、数字化转型与新质生产力发展  

Population Aging,Digital Transformation and Development of New Quality Productivity

作　　者：张苏[1] 朱媛 ZHANG Su;ZHU Yuan(School of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100089,China;School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100089 [2]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《北京工商大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第3期28-39,共12页JOURNAL OF BEIJING TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS UNIVERSITY:SOCIAL SCIENCES

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“老龄化背景下兼顾经济增长与代际公平目标的养老金制度研究”(21BJL037)。

摘　　要：为推进中国经济高质量发展,国家提出了大力发展新质生产力,深入推进数字化转型。基于新质生产力发展的政策目标构建新质生产力发展的评价指标体系,根据2000—2021年的省级面板数据分析了人口老龄化对新质生产力发展的影响及其机制。研究结果表明:人口老龄化对新质生产力发展存在显著的抑制作用,人口老龄化通过数字化转型推动新质生产力发展;人口老龄化对新质生产力发展的影响存在单门槛效应,当大于门槛值时,人口老龄化通过数字化转型对新质生产力发展产生的影响将发生显著变化;异质性分析表明,人口老龄化对新质生产力发展表现出显著的抑制作用仅存在于东部地区。建议加大对科技和教育的投入,提升数字化转型水平,从而抑制人口老龄化对新质生产力发展的负面影响;不同地区新质生产力发展的驱动因素存在差异,应对不同区域实施差异化的区域发展战略,从而有效推动新质生产力发展。China has proposed to vigorously develop new quality productive forces and further advance digital transformation to facilitate high-quality development of China economy.Based on the policy objectives of developing new quality productive forces,this paper constructs an assessment indicator system and analyzes the impact of population aging on new quality productive forces and its mechanism using provincial-level panel data from 2000 to 2021.The research results indicate that population aging significantly inhibits the development of new quality productive forces,and digital transformation serves as an important channel in this inhibitory effect.The impact of population aging on new quality productive forces exhibits a single threshold effect.When it exceeds the threshold value,the impact of population aging on new quality productive forces through digital transformation will undergo significant changes.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the above inhibitory effect is only significant in the eastern region.Thus,efforts need to be made to enhance investments in science,technology,and education to elevate the level of digital transformation,thereby mitigating the adverse impact of population aging on new quality productive forces.Given that different regions exhibit distinct driving factors for new quality productive forces,it is imperative to implement region-specific development strategies to effectively promote the development of new quality productive forces.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 新质生产力发展 数字化转型 评价指标体系 高质量发展 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F124