基于PCA-APCS-MLR模型的滇池流域地下水质量影响因素定量识别  

Quantitative Identification of Factors Affecting Groundwater Quality in Dianchi Lake Basin Based on PCA-APCS-MLR Model

作　　者：彭聪 梁建宏[1] 任坤[1] 曾洁[1] 唐薇薇 潘晓东[1] PENG Cong;LIANG Jianhong;REN Kun;ZENG Jie;TANG Weiwei;PAN Xiaodong(Key Laboratory of Karst Dynamics,MNR&GZAR/Guangxi Karst Resources and Environment Research Center of Engineering Technology,Institute of Karst Geology,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Guilin 541004,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院岩溶地质研究所,自然资源部/广西岩溶动力学重点实验室,广西岩溶资源环境工程技术研究中心,广西桂林541004

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2024年第5期1116-1126,共11页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：广西重点研发计划项目(No.桂科AB21196026,桂科AB22035004);地质调查项目(No.DD20230081)。

摘　　要：近年来,随着人类活动的加剧,滇池流域地下水质量不断恶化.本研究在评价流域地下水质量及主要影响指标的基础上,利用主成分分析法(PCA)归纳主要影响水质的驱动因子,并结合绝对主成分得分-多元线性回归受体模型(APCS-MLR模型)进一步量化了人为和天然因素对流域内地下水质量的影响程度.结果表明:①滇池流域约78%的地下水超过GB/T 14848-2017《地下水质量标准》Ⅲ类水标准,其中主要超标指标为铝(Al)、锰(Mn)和总铁(TFe).②通过主成分分析(PCA)提取了5类影响水质的主成分因子,分别为水岩相互作用因子(24.27%)、生活污水漏排因子(17.09%)、农业活动污染因子(12.24%)、地质环境背景因子(10.26%)和工业活动污染因子(9.14%),方差累积贡献率为73.00%.③利用APCS-MLR模型进一步量化了各类人为和天然因素对流域内地下水质量影响的贡献,5项因子对特征指标的平均贡献率分别为45.15%、70.76%、45.54%、54.1%和44.59%.研究显示,人类活动对地下水的过度开采及工农业活动是导致区域地下水质量下降的主要因素.In recent years,with the intensification of human activities,the groundwater quality in the Dianchi Lake Basin has been continuously deteriorating.Based on the evaluation of groundwater quality and main influencing indicators in the basin,this study used principal component analysis to summarize the main activity factors affecting water quality.The absolute principal component scoremultiple linear regression(APCS-MLR)receptor model was used to further quantify the extent of the impact of human and natural factors on the groundwater quality of the basin.The study showed that(1)About 78%of groundwater in Dianchi Basin exceeded GB/T 14848-2017 Groundwater Quality StandardⅢwater standards,of which the main exceeding indicators were aluminum(Al),manganese(Mn),and total iron(TFe).(2)Principal component analysis(PCA)was used to identify five types of influencing factors,namely water-rock interaction factor(24.27%),domestic sewage leakage factor(17.09%),agricultural activity pollution factor(12.24%),geological environment background factor(10.26%),and industrial activity pollution factor(9.14%).The cumulative contribution rate of variance was 73.00%.(3)The contribution of anthropogenic and natural factors to the impact of groundwater quality in the basin was further quantified using APCS-MLR The average contributions of the five factors to the characteristic indicators were 45.15%,70.76%,45.54%,54.1%and 44.59%,respectively.The research shows that the over-exploitation of groundwater by human activities and industrial and agricultural activities are the main factors leading to the decline of regional groundwater quality.

关 键 词：滇池流域 地下水质量 污染源识别 PCA APCS-MLR模型 

分 类 号：X822[环境科学与工程—环境工程]