中国式发展道路的福利效应  

The Welfare Effect of the Chinese-Style Development Path

作　　者：皮建才[1] 张鹏清 PI Jiancai;ZHANG Pengqing(School of Economics,Nanjing University,Nanjing,210093;School of Economics and Trade,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou,510006)

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院 [2]广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院

出　　处：《中国经济问题》2024年第1期121-135,共15页China Economic Studies

摘　　要：本文通过构建包含政治晋升锦标赛机制的多部门动态随机一般均衡模型,以中国特色的垂直结构下国有企业在国民经济中的作用为切入点,研究“有效市场+有为政府”的中国式发展道路的福利效应。我们的研究发现:政治晋升冲击对社会福利的影响呈U型变化,上下游关联程度冲击会降低社会福利,淡化GDP考核并弱化上下游关联程度则有利于提高社会福利;推进金融改革,降低非国有企业部门的融资约束,可以提升社会福利;但是,如果政府部门退出对国有企业的适当支持,并不能很好发挥“有为政府”的作用,反而有损社会福利。因此,在中国式发展道路中,我们需要充分考虑我国的政治晋升锦标赛和垂直结构所发挥的作用。This paper builds a multi-sector DSGE model incorporating the political promotion tournament to analyze the welfare effect of the Chinese-style development path with the combination of the effective government and the efficient market,taking the role of state-owned enterprises in the national economy under the Chinese-characteristics vertical structure as a point of penetration.Our findings are as follows:(i)The impacts of the political promotion shock on social welfare change in the U-shaped curve,and the upstream-downstream linkage shock decreases social welfare,but weakening the political promotion tournament and at the same time reducing the upstream-downstream linkage can help improve social welfare;(ii)Promoting financial reform and reducing the financing constraints of non-state-owned enterprises can increase social welfare;(iii)If the government sector withdraws the appropriate support to state-owned enterprises,the role of the effective government will be curbed and this will do harm to social welfare.Hence,in the Chinese-style development path,we should pay full attention to the role of the political promotion tournament and the vertical structure,and strengthen the confidence in the path.

关 键 词：中国式发展道路 福利效应 政治晋升锦标赛 垂直结构 

分 类 号：D632.1[政治法律—政治学] D630[政治法律—中外政治制度] F124[经济管理—世界经济]