基于碳汇潜力的碳排放空间关联网络结构特征及影响因素——以长江中游城市群为例  

Structural characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emission spatial associa-tion networks based on carbon sink potential:a case study of urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River

作　　者：刘耀彬[1,2,3] 邓伟凤 李硕硕 柏玲[1,2] LIU Yaobin;DENG Weifeng;LI Shuoshuo;BAI Ling(School of Economics and Management,Nanchang University,Nanchang Jiangxi 330031,China;China Central Economic and Social Research and Development Center,Nanchang University,Nanchang Jiangxi 330031,China;School of Resources and Environment,Nanchang University,Nanchang Jiangxi 330031,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330031 [2]南昌大学中国中部经济社会研究发展中心,江西南昌330031 [3]南昌大学资源与环境学院,江西南昌330031

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2024年第3期1-15,共15页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于生态系统服务供需的环鄱阳湖城市群产业空间格局响应与模拟”(批准号:42271209);国家自然科学基金青年项目“长江中游城市群产业空间与碳中和分区的匹配与优化策略研究”(批准号:42201184)。

摘　　要：考虑碳汇潜力的碳排放空间关联是促进城市群协同减排的重要基础,更是实现碳中和的有力抓手。以长江中游城市群为研究区,对传统引力模型进行修正,构建兼具碳汇潜力的碳排放空间关联网络,采用社会网络分析(SNA)和二次指派程序方法(QAP)探究长江中游城市群碳排放空间关联网络的时空特征与影响因素。结果表明:①研究期间长江中游城市群碳排放网络关联关系数、网络密度和网络关联度呈增长趋势,网络效率和网络等级度不断下降,且网络等级度在2010年后始终为0,表明碳排放空间关联网络日益稠密、网络通达性较强,存在多重叠加的溢出渠道,但等级结构并不森严。基于碳汇潜力的长江中游城市群碳排放空间关联网络从“双核化”向“多极化、多线程”网络形态发展,核心城市的扩散作用不断增强。此外,以抚州、宜昌、鹰潭、上饶和吉安等为代表的高碳生态承载力地区,在碳排放空间关联网络中的受益关联性大于溢出关联性。②2020年,长江中游城市群碳排放空间关联网络形成四大板块,相较于板块内部成员间的碳排放空间关联效应,板块间的碳排放空间关联效应更为明显,即板块间的“碳排放转移”效应较为普遍。净溢出板块主要分布在武汉都市圈、宜荆荆都市圈和长株潭城市群外围城市,处于网络核心圈层位置;净受益板块主要分布在环鄱阳湖城市群东部,“碳排放避难所”效应显著。经纪人板块集中在环鄱阳湖城市群西部,板块间表现出“净溢出板块→经纪人板块→净受益板块”的碳排放传递路径,呈现出明显的“梯度转移”特征。双向溢出板块主要位于长江中游城市群西部,对净溢出和净受益板块都存在碳排放的空间溢出。研究期内,净溢出板块的成员虽然有所变化但总数保持不变,经纪人板块的成员有所增加,而净受益和双向溢出板块的成�Acknowledging the carbon sink potential in carbon emission spatial associations is crucial to fostering collaborative emis-sion reduction within urban agglomerations,thereby furthering the achievement of carbon neutrality.This study focused on the urban ag-glomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and enhanced the traditional gravity model by including the carbon sink poten-tial to create a carbon emission spatial association network.Both social network analysis(SNA)and the quadratic assignment procedure(QAP)were employed to investigate the spatio-temporal properties and influencing elements of the network.The findings revealed that:①The network measures of carbon emission relations,network density,and network connectivity for the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River increased over time.However,network efficiency and network level degree declined continuously,with the latter dropping to zero after 2010,suggesting an increase in density and accessibility of the network and the existence of multi-ple overlapping spillage channels without a strict hierarchical structure.Over time,based on the carbon sink potential,the network transformed from a dual-core to a multipolar and multithreaded structure,with the diffusion effect of core cities strengthening continu-ously.Furthermore,regions with high ecological support for carbon,such as Fuzhou,Yichang,Yingtan,Shangrao,and Ji'an,displayed stronger benefit associations than spillage associations in the network.②In 2020,the network constituted four major blocks.The inter�block carbon emission spatial associations were more pronounced than the intra-block associations,signifying a strong carbon emission transfer effect between blocks.The net spillage blocks were primarily located in the periphery of the Wuhan metropolitan area,the Yichang–Jingzhou–Jingmen metropolitan area,and the Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan city group,central to the network.The net benefit blocks were mostly found in the eastern part of the urban agglomera

关 键 词：空间关联网络 碳排放 碳汇 碳生态承载系数 长江中游城市群 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]