印度制造业崛起的战略选择、政策制定及对中国的安全挑战  

Strategic Choices,Policy Formulation and Security Challenges to China from the Rise of India's Manufacturing Industry

作　　者：高熙睿 GAO Xi-rui

机构地区：[1]香港大学社会科学学院政治与公共行政学系,中国香港

出　　处：《南亚东南亚研究》2023年第6期80-102,155,156,共25页South and Southeast Asian Studies

摘　　要：比较印度独立以来不同的学理催生出的尼赫鲁模式、新自由主义模式和古吉拉特模式等发展模式,尤其是曼莫汉和莫迪新老两届政府在发展理论上的不同的基础上,可以发现印度主要的社会思潮是以费边社会主义为代表的左翼,国大党等中间派和印度人民党代表的印度教民族主义与新自由主义右翼。在中左翼日渐式微,右翼崛起的当下,印度人民党推动的印度教民族主义和新自由主义成为主要社会思潮。印度教民族主义主导了印度20世纪80年代以来的政治发展,影响了其大战略和外交政策,突出表现是印度同美国积极合作针对中国,印日在印太框架下不断推进合作。而从印度制造业崛起的安全属性角度来看,印度制造业或许完全崛起也无法对中国形成严峻的产业经济挑战,但是只要崛起就会对中国形成安全挑战。印度制造业崛起对中国的安全挑战为一个“黑天鹅”事件,两个基本问题与三个“灰犀牛”事件。这将是我国未来一段时间在次要战略方向上的主要挑战的具体形式。中国应重视和正视印度的制造业崛起,做好长期应对准备。By comparing different development models such as the Nehruvian model,neoliberal model,and Gujarat model spawned by various academic theories since India's independence,especially based on the different developmental theories under the old and new governments of Manmohan Singh and Narendra Modi,it can be found that India's predominant social ideologies are represented by left wing,with Fabian socialism being prominent and centrist parties such as the Congress Party,and Hindu nationalism and neoliberal right wing represented by the Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP).In the current context of the decline of the center-left and the rise of the right-wing,the Hindu nationalism and neoliberalism promoted by BJP have become the predominant social ideologies.Hindu nationalism has dominated India's political development since the 1980s,influencing its grand strategy and foreign policy.A prominent manifestation is that India's active cooperation with the United States against China,and the continuous advancement of cooperation with Japan within the Indo-Pacific framework.From the security implications of the rise of India's manufacturing industry,even the complete rise of India's manufacturing industry may not pose a severe industrial economic challenge to China,any rise would indeed present a security challenge to China.The security challenges posed by the rise of India's manufacturing industry to China are a"black swan"event,two basic issues and three"gray rhino"events.This will be the specific form of China's main challenge in the secondary strategic direction in the foreseeable future.China should attach importance to and address the rise of India's manufacturing industry and make long-term preparations for the rise.

关 键 词：印度制造业 国家安全 印度教民族主义 印度人民党 中印关系 

分 类 号：D822.335.1[政治法律—政治学] F435.1[政治法律—外交学] F125[经济管理—产业经济]