基于Joinpoint回归模型的2005-2022年百色市艾滋病新报告病例趋势分析  

Trend analysis of newly reported AIDS cases in Baise from 2005 to 2022 based on Joinpoint regression model

作　　者：韦思纯 陈坚 梁冰玉[3] 廖建英[1] 汤健闻 WEI Sichun;CHEN Jian;LIANG Bingyu;LIAO Jianying;TANG Jianwen;无(School of Public Health and Management,Youjiang Medical University for Nationalities,Baise,Guangxi 533000,China;Department of AIDS Prevention and Control,Baise Centre for Disease Control and Prevention,Baise,Guangxi 533000,China;School of Public Health,Guangxi Medical University,Nanning,Guangxi 530021,China;Department of Disease Control,Baise Centre for Disease Control and Prevention,Baise,Guangxi 533000,China)

机构地区：[1]右江民族医学院公共卫生与管理学院,广西百色533000 [2]百色市疾病预防控制中心艾滋病防制科,广西百色533000 [3]广西医科大学公共卫生学院,广西南宁530021 [4]百色市疾病预防控制中心疾病控制科,广西百色533000

出　　处：《热带医学杂志》2024年第2期280-283,共4页Journal of Tropical Medicine

基　　金：广西科技基地和人才专项(2022AC23005);百色市科技计划项目(20203101,20222037)。

摘　　要：目的 分析百色市居民2005-2022年艾滋病新报告病例变化趋势,为针对性地制定当地艾滋病防控措施提供参考依据。方法 从“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”数据库中下载百色市艾滋病历史数据,筛选2005-2022年当年新报告艾滋病病例为研究对象,用Joinpoint回归模型分析各年度新报告病例的变化趋势。结果 百色市2005-2022年新报告10 790例HIV/AIDS,以男性、已婚有配偶、农民、异性性传播为主,分别占64.87%(6 999例)、62.42%(6 735例)、68.61%(7 403例)、88.56%(9 556例)。年新报告病例变化趋势显示,2005-2011年、2014-2020年间呈上升趋势(斜率分别为60.32、104.22,P均<0.05),2011-2014年、2020-2022年间呈下降趋势(斜率分别为-17.87、-14.15,P均>0.05);男性和女性新报告病例变化趋势不平行(P<0.05)。结论 百色市艾滋病年新报告病例在2005-2022年间呈上升趋势,应重点关注男性群体的艾滋病防治工作,并有针对性地对主要人群开展艾滋病宣传教育和行为干预等工作,遏制艾滋病的流行。Objective To analyze the changing trend of newly reported AIDS cases among residents in Baise from 2005 to 2022,and provide a reference basis for the formulation of local AIDS prevention and control measures.Methods Download the historical data of AIDS in Baise from the database of the China Disease Prevention and Control Information system,and select the newly reported AIDS cases from 2005 to 2022 as the object of study;Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the changing trend of newly reported cases in each year.Results A total of 10790 new cases of HIV/AIDS were reported in Baise from 2005 to 2022,mainly male,married with spouses,farmers and heterosexual transmission,accounting for 64.87%(6999 cases),62.42%(6735 cases),68.61%(7403 cases)and 88.56%(9556 cases),respectively.The annual change trend of newly reported cases shows an upward trend from 2005 to 2011 and 2014 to 2020(slopes of 60.32 and 104.22,respectively;all P<0.05),and a downward trend from 2011 to 2014 and 2020 to 2022(slopes of-17.87 and-14.15,respectively;all P>0.05);the changing trends of newly reported cases in men and women were not parallel(P<0.05).Conclusions The newly reported cases of AIDS in Baise showed an upward trend from 2005 to 2022.Prevention and treatment of AIDS should be focused among males;AIDS publicity,education and behavioral intervention should be carried out for major groups to curb the epidemic of AIDS.

关 键 词：艾滋病 新报告病例 Joinpoint回归分析 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]