RCEP关税减让对中国在本区域内制造业出口的影响——基于“最少贸易产品”方法的估计  

The Impact of RCEP Tariff Concession on China's Manufacturing Exports in the Region:An Estimation Based on the Approach of“Least-traded Products”

作　　者：李坤望[1] 丛聪 LI Kunwang;CONG Cong

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2024年第4期4-19,共16页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72073075);天津市研究生科研创新项目(2021YJSB039)。

摘　　要：RCEP的生效将为中国出口贸易发展带来重大影响。文章以“最少贸易产品”为切入点,将出口增长分解为“最少贸易产品”和“非最少贸易产品”两部分,构建一个预测自由贸易协定签订对贸易流量影响的新模型来评估加入RCEP对中国制造业出口贸易的影响。研究发现:第一,RCEP的生效将带动中国制造业的出口增长,不同行业的出口增速具有差异性,“最少贸易产品”占比高的行业出口增长较快;第二,“最少贸易产品”的平均出口增长率远高于“非最少贸易产品”,对出口增长的贡献度更高;第三,中国对RCEP不同成员国的出口增长率不尽相同,相较于其他成员国,中国对韩国的出口增长率更高。文章的研究结果将有助于理解RCEP的贸易促进效应,为中国对外贸易政策调整提供参照。The entry into force of RCEP will have a significant impact on the development of China's export trade.Taking"least-traded products"as the starting point,this paper decomposes the export growth into two parts of"least-traded products"and"non-least-traded products",and constructs a new model for predicting the effect of the signing of free trade agreements on trade flow to evaluate the impact of joining RCEP on China's manufacturing export trade.The research shows that:firstly,the entry into force of RCEP will drive the export growth of China's manufacturing industry,and the export growth rate varies among different industries with the industries with a high proportion of"least-traded products"experiencing faster export growth;secondly,the average export growth rate of"least-traded products"is much higher than that of"non-least-traded products"and"least-traded products"contribute more to export growth;thirdly,China's export growth rate to different RCEP member countries varies,with a higher export growth rate to South Korea compared with other member countries.The research results of this paper will help to understand trade promotion effect of RCEP and provide reference for the adjustment of China's foreign trade policy.

关 键 词：RCEP “最少贸易产品” 扩展边际 出口增长 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]