基于TERGM的“一带一路”国家石油资源流动演化机理研究  

Research on the evolution mechanism of oil resource flow along the Belt and Road based on TERGM

作　　者：高思齐 赵媛[1,2] 郝丽莎 祝孔超[1,2] 鄢继尧 GAO Siqi;ZHAO Yuan;HAO Lisha;ZHU Kongchao;YAN Jiyao(School of Geographical Science,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京210023 [2]江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京210023

出　　处：《地理研究》2024年第5期1051-1072,共22页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41971248)。

摘　　要：石油资源的跨国流动一直是经济地理学关注的重要议题,但对影响石油资源流动的多维动力因素及作用机理研究比较薄弱。本文以“一带一路”国家为案例区,借助网络模体分析方法和时间指数随机图模型(TERGM),对2000—2020年石油资源流动演化机理进行全面分析。结果显示:(1)石油资源流动存在单向传递抑或三元互惠的微观组织结构,表明参与者的贸易关系之间相互影响,能够通过内生性结构依赖对整体格局演化发挥作用,印证本文所选模型的科学性。(2)石油资源流动受到互惠性、结构依赖性、节点属性、外部环境嵌入性和时间依赖性的共同驱动。其中,互惠关系和三元闭合关系是石油资源贸易扩张的主要组织结构,经济规模的趋同性和制度环境、基础设施异质性是国家双向匹配的关键因素,经济空间网络、政治空间网络是重要外生网络。在“经济-政治-安全”导向三环约束下,维护既有关系稳定深入发展,才是推动石油资源流动达到帕累托最优的关键。The current global energy interaction pattern is undergoing profound changes.As the main battlefield of China's foreign oil cooperation,clarifying the formation process and evolution mechanism of oil resource flow pattern along the Belt and Road has increasingly become the key point for ensuring China's oil cooperation security.This paper used the data from 2000 to 2020,including international oil import and export trade data,relevant national economic and social development indicators,and the spherical distance between countries.Then it discussed the endogenous structure characteristics and synthetic evolution mechanism of oil resource flow along the Belt and Road,with the help of network motifs detection and temporal exponential random graph model.The results show that:(1)The endogenous structure tends to be characterized by unidirectional transfer or ternary reciprocity,which confirms the oil resource flow along the Belt and Road has self-organization characteristics,and there is mutual influence among the participants'trade relations.In addition,the self-organization characteristics such as"transitivity","reciprocity"and"cyclicity"can have an endogenous driving effect on the evolution of oil resource flow,and also confirms the scientific validity of the TERGM model selected in this paper.(2)The influencing mechanism of oil resource flow can be summarized as reciprocity,endogenous structure dependent effect,countries attribute,exogenous network embedding and time dependent effect.Reciprocal relations and triad closure relations are the main structure of oil trade expansion.Economic development convergence,institutional environment and infrastructure heterogeneity are the key factors for bidirectional matching of every two countries.Countries that produce or consume oil resource on a larger scale tend to keep more trade relations.Economic correlation network and political cooperation network are important exogenous linkages,and economic embeddedness and political embeddedness have facilitated oil trade relation

关 键 词：石油资源流动 微观组织结构 外部网络效应 时间指数随机图模型 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F746