保定市碳达峰预测研究  

Research on Carbon Peak Prediction in Baoding City

作　　者：马建辉[1,2,3] 冯静璇 常锦涛 房硕 刘永亮 MA Jian-hui;FENG Jing-xuan;CHANG Jin-tao;FANG Shuo;LIU Yong-liang(School of Economics,Hebei University,Baoding 071002,China;Resource Utilization and Environmental Protection Research Center of Hebei University,Baoding 071002,China;Baoding Key Laboratory of Carbon Neutrality and Data Science,Baoding 071002,China)

机构地区：[1]河北大学经济学院,保定071002 [2]河北大学资源利用与环境保护研究中心,保定071002 [3]保定市碳中和与数据科学重点实验室,保定071002

出　　处：《价值工程》2024年第14期156-158,共3页Value Engineering

基　　金：保定市哲学社会科学规划课题“保定市碳核算与碳达峰研究”(课题编号:2021022)。

摘　　要：本文利用2000-2018年的相关数据,基于STIRPAT模型预测保定市2019-2035年间的碳排放量。结果显示:在基准情景下,保定市未来碳排放量呈增长的趋势,并且在三种情景中碳排放量最高;技术减排和绝对低碳减排情景下,未来碳排放量显示出逐年降低的趋势,其中绝对低碳减排情景下碳排放减少幅度最大。研究结果表明,保定市已经实现碳达峰,未来应进一步通过技术进步调整产业结构、降低对化石能源的依赖程度。This article uses relevant data from 2000 to 2018 and predicts the carbon emissions of Baoding City from 2019 to 2035 based on the STIRPAT model.The results show that under the baseline scenario,the future carbon emissions of Baoding City show an increasing trend,and the carbon emissions are the highest among the three scenarios.Under the scenarios of technological reduction and absolute low-carbon reduction,future carbon emissions show a decreasing trend year by year,with the largest reduction in carbon emissions observed under the absolute low-carbon reduction scenario.The research results indicate that Baoding City has achieved carbon peak and should further adjust its industrial structure and reduce its dependence on fossil fuels through technological progress in the future.

关 键 词：碳排放预测 STIRPAT模型 技术减排 绝对低碳减排 保定市 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]