S波段双偏振天气雷达降水产品评估与分析  

Evaluation and analysis of precipitation products of S-band dual polarization weather radar

作　　者：张骞 宫玉辛 孙伟佳 魏海文 马传成 Zhang Qian;Gong Yuxin;Sun Weijia;Wei Haiwen;Ma Chuancheng(Shandong Meteorological Engineering Technology Center,Ji'nan 250000;Meteorological Observatory of Shandong Province,Ji'nan 250000)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象工程技术中心,济南250000 [2]山东省气象台,济南250000

出　　处：《气象水文海洋仪器》2024年第2期10-13,共4页Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金面上课题“双偏振天气雷达森林火险监控预警系统研发”(ZR2021MD121)资助。

摘　　要：为了发挥双偏振天气雷达中一小时降水产品对下一时次降水预报的指导性作用,文章匹配分析山东省2020年94次降水过程的2091个整点时次的一小时降水产品与自动气象站一小时降水量,以自动气象站降水量为真值,发现一小时降水产品存在较明显的误差。一小时降水产品远距离的小雨估测准确性较低,对近距离局地强对流降水估测准确性较差,存在明显的空报现象。造成误差的因素主要有高空风速及风向使降水落区具有不确定性、降水估测算法没有经过本地化处理以及晴空回波与弱降水回波非常相似。因此,降水估测产品的准确性需要进一步改善和提升。In order to play the guiding role of the one-hour precipitation product of dual polarization weather radar for the next time precipitation forecast.In this paper,the one-hour precipitation products of 2091 hourly times of 94 weather processes in Shandong Province in 2020 and one-hour precipitation of automatic meteorological station are matched and analyzed.Taking the precipitation of automatic meteorological station as the true value,it is found that the one-hour precipitation products have obvious errors.The estimation accuracy of one-hour precipitation products is low for light rain at a long distance,and poor for local strong convective precipitation at a short distance,and there is an an obvious phenomenon of empty reporting.The main factors causing errors are as follows:uncertainty of precipitation area caused by the high altitude wind speed and direction,unlocalized the precipitation estimation algorithm,the similarity between clear air echoes and weak precipitation echoes.Therefore,the accuracy of precipitation estimation products needs to be further improved.

关 键 词：双偏振雷达 一小时降水产品 误差 高空风 晴空回波 评估 

分 类 号：P412[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]