基于净负荷预测误差统计的电力系统爬坡能力充裕度评估  

Adequacy Evaluation of Power System Ramping Capability Based on Net Load Forecast Error Statistics

作　　者：陈中飞 赵越 蔡秋娜 张乔榆 王泽林 戴晓娟 陈雨果 CHEN Zhongfei;ZHAO Yue;CAI Qiuna;ZHANG Qiaoyu;WANG Zelin;DAI Xiaojuan;CHEN Yuguo(Power Dispatching and Control Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510600,China;Beijing TsIntergy Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100080,China)

机构地区：[1]广东电网有限责任公司电力调度控制中心,广东广州510600 [2]北京清能互联科技有限公司,北京100080

出　　处：《中国电力》2024年第5期50-60,共11页Electric Power

基　　金：广东省重点领域研发计划资助项目(广东省电力源网荷储智慧联动运营关键技术,2019B111109002)。

摘　　要：在新能源快速发展的背景下,为应对其出力波动性和间歇性对电力系统的冲击,电力系统需要具有较强的爬坡能力。分析电力系统爬坡能力的供需情况,可以发现爬坡能力不足的风险,提高电力系统运行的安全性和稳定性。首先,提出电力系统爬坡能力充裕度评估的逻辑和流程,并且给出确定性爬坡量、不确定性爬坡量和富余爬坡能力及其需供比的定义与概念。然后,提出基于置信数统计法和分位数回归法预估系统净负荷预测误差的理论与具体计算方法,以及上述参数的具体计算方法。最后,基于广东40个历史运行日和4个典型日的数据进行算例分析,验证该充裕度评估方法的有效性。研究表明:富余爬坡能力需供比可以有效识别不同典型日和特殊时段的爬坡特征,在日尺度和分钟尺度上反映其爬坡能力充裕度;覆盖率、超出量和预估量等指标,可以用于评价误差预估模型在不同地区和场景的适用性,作为模型选用参考。In the context of rapid development of renewable energy,the power system is required to keep sufficient ramping capability for coping with the renewable generation's fluctuation and intermittence.Analyzing the supply-demand situation of the power system's ramping capability can discover the risk of insufficient ramping capability and improve the security and stability of the power system operation.This paper firstly proposes the logic and procedure for power system ramping capability adequacy evaluation,and clarifies the definitions and concepts of the netload ramping capacity,uncertainty ramping capacity,surplus ramping capability and its demand-supply ratio.And the theories and specific calculation methods for estimating the netload forecast error based on the confidence statistics and quantile regression,as well as the specific calculation methods for the above parameters,are subsequently proposed.Finally,an example analysis is carried out based on the data of forty historical operating days and four typical days in Guangdong to validate the effectiveness of the proposed adequacy evaluation method.This research indicates that the surplus ramping capability demand-supply ratio can effectively identify the ramping characteristics in different typical days and special periods,reflecting the adequacy of ramping capability in the day and minute scale;the indicators such as coverage,excess,and estimation quantity can be used to evaluate the applicability of error estimation models in different regions and scenarios,serving as a reference for model selection.

关 键 词：爬坡能力充裕度 需供比 系统净负荷预测误差 置信数统计法 分位数回归法 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]