浙江省某县中小学生新冠病毒灭活疫苗免疫效果预估模型建立  

Serological evaluation and antibody prediction model for inactivated COVID-19 vaccination in school children

作　　者：张莉 陈颖峰[2] 毛传武 解玉阳 叶品凯 董晓莲[2] 蒋露芳[1] 姜庆五[1] ZHANG Li;CHEN Yingfeng;MAO Chuanwu;XIE Yuyang;YE Pinkai;DONG Xiaolian;JIANG Lufang;JIANG Qingwu(School of Public Health,Fudan University,Shanghai 200032,China;Deqing County Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Huzhou,Zhejiang 313200,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学公共卫生学院,上海200032 [2]德清县疾病预防控制中心,浙江湖州313200

出　　处：《上海预防医学》2024年第4期368-374,共7页Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：【目的】观察浙江省某县中小学生新冠灭活疫苗免疫接种后血清抗体水平并分析其影响因素,构建抗体浓度预测模型。【方法】以浙江省某县为研究现场,对接种新型冠状病毒灭活疫苗的中小学生进行分层整群随机抽样,收集性别、年龄、接种疫苗种类及接种疫苗时间等信息,采集研究对象血清样本,采用化学免疫发光法(CLIA)检测血清新冠病毒抗S+N IgG抗体,分析其影响因素并构建抗体浓度预测模型。【结果】女性的IgG抗体浓度高于男性;年龄增大,抗体水平下降;接种2剂者抗体浓度高于接种1剂的;KX疫苗接种者抗体浓度高于2种疫苗混合接种者,以及GY生物制品研究所疫苗接种者;时间间隔越长,抗体水平越低。研究构建的随机森林回归预测模型的模型拟合情况及预测能力均优于多元线性逐步回归预测模型。【结论】性别、年龄、疫苗接种剂次、疫苗种类、疫苗接种时间在一定程度上影响了中小学生新冠灭活疫苗的免疫接种效果,预测模型能较好的预测接种人群抗体水平,为未来新发传染病疫苗接种免疫效果评价提供新思路。[Objective]To determine the serum antibody level and risk factors in the adolescent population in a county in Zhejiang Province,following the immunization with inactivated COVID-19 vaccine,and to construct a prediction model for antibody concentration.[Methods]We conducted the study in a county in Zhejiang Province,employing a stratified cluster random sampling strategy in school children who had received the inactivated COVID-19 vaccine.Data on gender,age,type of vaccine,and time of vaccination was collected.Serum samples were also collected to test for anti-S and N IgG antibody against the SARS-CoV-2 by using chemiluminescent immunoassay(CLIA).Risk factors were determined to construct a prediction model for antibody concentration.[Results]The IgG antibody concentration was significantly higher in girls,those who received two doses,and those who had simply received the KX vaccine.It decreased with age and time interval between the sampling and last vaccination.The prediction model constructed by random forest regression in the study had a better model fit and predictive ability than that by the multivariable linear stepwise regression.[Conclusion]Gender,age,vaccination dose,type of vaccine,and time of vaccination are associated with vaccination effectiveness of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in adolescents.Prediction model could predict the antibody level in the vaccinated population,which can provide a new tool for better evaluation of vaccination effectiveness against emerging infectious diseases in future.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒 灭活疫苗 中小学生人群 免疫效果 血清评价 预测模型 

分 类 号：R186[医药卫生—流行病学]