中国婚姻预期寿命城乡演变研究  

Urban-Rural Differences in the Change of Marital Duration in China

作　　者：祝颖润 姜全保[2] ZHU Yingrun;JIANG Quanbao(School of Finance and Economics,Guangdong Normal University of Technology,Guangzhou Guangdong,510665,China;Institute for Population and Development Studies,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an Shaanxi,710049,China)

机构地区：[1]广东技术师范大学财经学院,广东广州510665 [2]西安交通大学人口与发展研究所,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《人口学刊》2024年第3期33-47,共15页Population Journal

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学基金一般项目:中国婚姻预期寿命及其性别差异研究(GD21CSH06);国家哲学社会科学基金后期资助项目:中国婚姻变迁研究(23FRKB001);国家哲学社会科学基金重大项目:中国家庭结构功能变迁及发展能力提升研究(23&ZD185)。

摘　　要：过去几十年间,随着中国人口的婚姻推迟,离婚率上升,各婚姻状态的预期寿命发生了很大变化且存在较大的城乡差异。文章基于2020年人口普查数据,并结合1990年和2010年人口普查数据,使用Sullivan方法测算中国城市-镇-乡村人口的未婚、在婚、离婚和丧偶四种婚姻预期寿命及其占余寿的比重,重点研究以下两个问题:第一,城市-镇-乡村人口的四种婚姻预期寿命及其占余寿的比重是增加还是减少?差异有多大?差异是扩大还是缩小?第二,使用因素分解方法解析四种婚姻状态的分布变动与死亡率下降对城市-镇-乡村人口婚姻预期寿命时期差异的不同贡献。研究结果表明:首先,城市-镇-乡村人口的未婚预期寿命及其占余寿的比重均在增加,主要是青年期平均未婚年限增加;乡村男性未婚预期寿命占比远高于城市与镇,乡城差异较大且在扩大;城市女性未婚预期寿命及其占比最高、乡村最低,城乡差异较大且在扩大。其次,城市-镇-乡村人口在婚预期寿命增加,主要原因是老年期平均在婚年限增加;但占余寿的比重减少,主要原因是青年期平均在婚年限减少;乡村男性的在婚预期寿命占余寿的比重最小、镇最大,镇乡差异较大且在扩大;乡村女性在婚预期寿命最短但占余寿的比重最高,城乡差异较大且在扩大。再次,城市-镇-乡村人口的离婚预期寿命及其占余寿的比重增加,主要原因是中年期平均离婚年限增加;镇男性离婚预期寿命及其占比最低、城市最高,城镇差异较小但在扩大;乡村女性离婚预期寿命及其占比最低、城市最高,城乡差异较大且在扩大。最后,城市-镇-乡村人口的丧偶预期寿命及其占余寿的比重均在减小,主要原因是老年期的平均丧偶年限减少,城镇乡差异较小且在缩小。分解发现年龄别未婚和离婚比例上升是城市-镇-乡村未婚预期寿命与离婚预期寿命增加的主�During the past decades,with the postponement in marriage and increase in divorce,the duration of each marital status has changed markedly,with a significant difference between city,township and coun⁃tryside population.In this paper,with the 2020 population census data,supplemented with the 1990 and 2010 population census data,and with the Sullivan method,we estimate the duration of never-married state,marriage,divorce and widowhood and the proportion of each state to the remaining life expectancy of city-township-countryside population,focusing on the following two issues:(1)Do the duration of the four marital status and their proportion in remaining life expectancy increase or decrease?What’s the difference in the two indicators among city,township and countryside population?Is the difference widening or nar⁃rowing?(2)Analyze the different contributions of the changes in the distribution of four martial statuses and the decline in death level to the differences in duration of each marital status among city,township and countryside population with a decomposition method.The results show that:(1)Never-married duration and its proportion to the remaining life expectancy for city-township-countryside population are increasing,mainly due to the increase in the duration of being never-married in youth.For men,the proportion of never-married duration for countryside population is much higher than that for city and township men,and the difference between countryside and city men is widening.For women,the never-married duration and its proportion is the highest in city and the lowest in countryside.The difference between city and country⁃side women is widening.(2)Marriage duration for city-township-countryside population increases,mainly due to the increase in the marriage duration in old age.However,the proportion to remaining life expec⁃tancy decreases,mainly due to the decrease of the marriage duration in youth.For men,the proportion in the countryside is the smallest and the proportion in town is the large

关 键 词：婚姻预期寿命 城乡演变 婚姻状态 死亡水平 

分 类 号：C913.1[经济管理]