中国人口流动的健康轨迹研究  

A Study on the Health Trajectory of Population Mobility in China

作　　者：张莉[1] 刘燕 王钦池[1] ZHANG Li;LIU Yan;WANG Qinchi(China Population and Development Research Center,Beijing,100081,China;School of Ethnology and Sociology,Minzu University of China,Beijing,100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人口与发展研究中心,北京100081 [2]中央民族大学民族学与社会学学院,北京100081

出　　处：《人口学刊》2024年第3期101-112,共12页Population Journal

摘　　要：人口的高流动性和流动人口快速老化已成为中国人口发展的显著特征。研究人口流动对我国城乡居民健康的影响及其变动趋势,对于理解和实现健康老龄化,改善人口健康水平具有重要意义。现有研究较多分析流动人口相比于城镇居民的健康状况,而对流动人口和农村居民的健康差异的研究相对缺乏;对于流动人口在老年阶段的健康状况与户籍人口的差异以及流动对人口健康的影响等关键问题尚没有确定结论。本文旨在探讨人口流动与个体健康的因果关系以及流动人口和城乡户籍人口之间随时间和年龄变化的健康差异。本文利用中国家庭动态追踪调查(CFPS)2010-2020年连续六次调查的面板数据,采用固定效应模型和线性回归模型分析人口流动的健康效应和年龄效应。研究发现2012-2020年流动对人口健康的总体影响为负,验证了流动具有健康损耗效应,存在“流行病学悖论”。从时期维度看,流动对人口健康的影响呈现由健康优势转为健康劣势的趋势,人口流动的健康选择效应和流动经历的内在健康损耗效应并存。初期流动人口具有健康优势,健康自评状况优于城乡户籍人口。随着时间推进,健康优势逐渐收敛,健康损耗效应逐渐显现。从年龄维度看,流动人口和城乡户籍人口的自评健康水平随着年龄增加都呈下降趋势,但流动人口的下降速度显著慢于城乡户籍人口,其健康优势在老年阶段逐渐消失。上述发现的政策含义是:在人口老龄化不断加深和流动人口规模保持高位,流动人口老化愈加明显的背景下,流动人口的健康老龄化成为重要挑战,在政策实践层面应关注流动经历对个体生命周期的持续影响,尤其是要重视城镇中的高龄流动人口返乡回流将健康风险转移到农村,从而增加农村整体的健康脆弱性和健康照护成本,应将人口流动因素作为优化城乡卫生健康�The high population mobility and the rapid aging of the migration become significant characteris⁃tics of China’s population development.Studying the impact and changing trends of mobility on the health of urban and rural residents in China is of great significance for understanding and achieving healthy aging,and improving population health levels.Existing studies have analyzed the health status of migration compared to urban residents,while there is relatively little research on the health differences between the migration and rural residents.Besides,the existing researches have not yet reached the agreements on the key issues,such as whether the health status of the migration in the older stage is better or worse than the local residents,and whether the impact of migration on population health is health damage or health gain.This paper aims to explore the causal relationship between population mobility and individual health,as well as the health differences between the migration and the local residents over period and age.Using the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)panel data from 2010 to 2020 of six consecutive surveys,we analyze the health and age effects of population mobility using fixed effects models and linear regression models.Our findings provide evidence of a significant negative impact of mobility on population health from 2012 to 2020.The conclusion verifies that the migration have the health depletion effect and there is an“epidemio⁃logical paradox”.From the period perspective,the impact of mobility on population health shows a transi⁃tional change from advantages to disadvantages,with both the health choice effect of population mobility and the inherent health loss effect of mobility experience coexisting.At the beginning,the migration has health advantages,and the health self-rated status are better than the urban and rural registered residents.With the development of the period,the health advantage is gradually converging,and health loss is emerged.From the perspective of age,both the

关 键 词：人口流动 健康轨迹 固定效应模型 时期变化 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]