中国经济增长的动力溯源:人口红利还是教育红利?  

The Impetus of the Economic Growth in China:The Demographic Dividend or Educational Dividend?

作　　者：黄晋生 Huang Jinsheng(School of Economics and Management,Qilu Normal University,Jinan 250200,China;School of Mathematics and Statistics,Kashi University,Kashi 844000,China)

机构地区：[1]齐鲁师范学院经济与管理学院,山东济南250200 [2]喀什大学数学与统计学院,新疆喀什844000

出　　处：《当代经济管理》2024年第6期42-52,共11页Contemporary Economic Management

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划青年项目“高等教育助推山东省农村内生发展动力的机制与路径研究”(23DJYJ06);喀什大学南疆教育发展研究中心项目“教育高质量发展助力南疆经济提质增效的多维测度与评价研究”(2023HX0307)。

摘　　要：在全面建设现代化产业体系过程中,充分挖掘人口资源优势对中国经济转型的影响作用至关重要。文章利用中国30个省份的面板数据,实证分析了2000—2021年劳动要素在中国经济中的贡献作用与门槛特征。结果表明:在中国经济增长过程中,人口红利与教育红利长期存在,教育红利一直是促进中国经济增长的主要动力因素;而在产业结构变迁过程中,人口红利的波动特征更为明显,人口红利与教育红利随着产业合理化水平的提升而减弱,随着产业高级化的推进而增强。由此提出,要在优化产业结构的同时稳定人口增长速度,促进教育人力资本的持续提升以及农村劳动力的合理流动。In the process of comprehensively building a modern industrial system,it is very important to fully tap the advantages of population resources to influence China’s economic transformation.Using panel data from 30 provinces in China,this paper empirically analyzes the contribution and threshold characteristics of labor factors in China’s economy from 2000 to 2021.The results show that:in the process of China’s economic growth,the demographic dividend and the educational dividend exist for a long time,and the educational dividend has been the main driving force to promote China’s economic growth;in the process of industrial structure change,the fluctuation characteristics of demographic dividend are more obvious.Demographic dividend and educational dividend weaken with the improvement of industrial rationalization level,and increase with the advancement of industrial upgrading.Therefore,it is proposed to stabilize the population growth rate while optimizing the industrial structure,promote the continuous improvement of educational human capital and the reasonable flow of rural labor force.

关 键 词：人口红利 教育红利 经济增长 产业结构变迁 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]