基于径流模数的LSTM模型在无资料嵌套流域的应用  

Application of runoff modulus-based LSTM in ungauged nested watersheds

作　　者：石卓 史东华 姚成[1] 孟涵 张锦堂[3] SHI Zhuo;SHI Donghua;YAO Cheng;MENG Han;ZHANG Jintang(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Hubei Yifang Science and Technology Development Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430010,China;Hydrology Bureau of Province,Hefei 230022,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]湖北一方科技发展有限责任公司,湖北武汉430010 [3]安徽省水文局,安徽合肥230022

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第3期51-57,共7页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51979070);安徽省自然科学基金“水科学”联合基金项目(2208085US06)。

摘　　要：针对LSTM模型参数在无资料嵌套流域移植效果不佳的问题,以屯溪流域为研究对象,以其嵌套子流域为参证流域,综合考虑面积因素对参数移植法的影响,建立了基于径流模数的LSTM模型(RM-LSTM模型),并采用参数移植法进行流域洪水过程模拟。结果表明:RM-LSTM模型在研究流域应用效果较好,模拟结果的确定性系数达0.87,洪峰、洪量及峰现时间合格率均在85.0%以上;在参证子流域内,RM-LSTM模型参数移植后模拟结果的确定性系数及洪峰、洪量、峰现时间合格率较LSTM模型参数移植结果均有明显提升;RM-LSTM模型能够更好地考虑流域面积变化对参数移植方法的影响。To address the problem that the parameters of the LSTM model do not transpose well in nested watersheds with inadequate records of hydrological observations,a runoff modulus-based LSTM(RM-LSTM)was developed using the Tunxi Watershed as the study watershed and its nested sub-basins as the reference watersheds,with the consideration of the influence of area factor on the parameter transfer method.The flood simulations in the reference watersheds were carried out using the parameter transfer method.The results showed that the RM-LSTM model was well applied in the study watershed,with a determination coefficient of 0.87 for the simulation results,and a qualification rate of 85.0% or more for flood peak,flood volume and peak present time.In the reference watersheds,the RM-LSTM model showed a marked improvement in terms of the determination coefficient,qualification rate of flood peak,qualification rate of flood volume,and qualification rate of peak time after the parameter transplantation,compared to the results obtained from the LSTM model.The RM-LSTM model can better take into account the influence of watershed area changes on the parameter transfer method.

关 键 词：LSTM模型 径流模数 参数移植 无资料地区 嵌套流域 屯溪流域 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]