林甸县生境质量时空演变模拟及预测  

Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Habitat Quality in Lindian County

作　　者：张敬彤 李继红[1] Zhang Jingtong;Li Jihong(College of Forestry Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150000,Heilongjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学林学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150000

出　　处：《绿色科技》2024年第6期66-71,80,共7页Journal of Green Science and Technology

摘　　要：以黑龙江省林甸县为研究区,利用2000年、2010年、2018年土地利用调查资料,采用PLUS模型、InVEST模型等方法,开展其生境时空演化与预测研究。结果表明:①林甸县土地利用主要是耕地,其次是草地,再次是建设用地,林地和水面的比例很低;②2000-2018年耕地、未利用地面积扩张分别为111.26、39.14 km^(2),林地和草地面积缩小分别为26.61、130.69 km^(2);③以2018年为基期,得到了2030年黑龙江省林甸县土地利用模拟情况。结果表明:Kappa系数为0.85,证明模拟精度较高,可以开展生境质量模拟研究。2030年情景模拟的成果显示:不同情景下的土地利用模拟图存在显著差异,情景中的农地和水面建设用地的扩张,包括未使用土地在内的林地、水生植物地的面积也在下降,生境质量下降,生境地面临退化的危险,为黑龙江省林甸县的生态环境建设与绿色生态建设提供了一定的理论依据与现实依据。Taking Lindian County of Heilongjiang Province as the study area,using the land use survey data in 2000,2010 and 2018,the spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of habitat were carried out by using PLUS,In-VEST and other methods.The results showed that:①The land use in Lindian County was mainly cultivated land,followed by grassland and construction land.The ratio of forest land to water surface was very low.②From 2000 to 2018,the area of cultivated land and unused land expanded by 111.26 km^(2) and 39.14 km^(2),respectively,and the area of forest land and grassland decreased by 26.61 km2 and 130.69 km2,respectively.③Taking 2018 as the base period,the land use simulation of Lindian County in Heilongjiang Province in 2030 was obtained,and the results showed that the Kappa coefficient was 0.85,which proved that the simulation accuracy was high and the habitat quality simulation research could be carried out.The results of the 2030 scenario simulation show that there are significant differences in the land use simulation maps under different scenarios;the expansion of agricultural land and water surface construction land in the scenario,the area of forest land and aquatic plant land including unused land are also decreasing.The habitat quality is decreasing,and the habitat is facing the danger of degradation,which provides a certain theoretical and practical basis for the ecological environment construction and green ecological construction in Lindian County,Heilongjiang Province.

关 键 词：InVEST模型 PLUS模型 生境质量 林甸县 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]